Debate Tournament - Round 1: Scholars vs. Periaur

[Nóm]

Periaur vs. Scholars

Periaur:
Elbereth
Legolam
snaga1
Wonko the Sane

Scholars:
Maedhros
Feanorian
ithrynluin
Elfarmari

GoS has the choice of sides.

The debate ends exactly one week from the opening arguement.

Credit for the topic goes to FoolOfATook.

Considering all that happend after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur??

[Maedhros]

The Topic is:

Considering all that happend after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur?
The answer of course is obvious. It is the right decision. Why? Because of several points:
1. A Sauron in Dol Guldur with the proper time to prepare would have overtaken both Lórien and Rivendell. Where would Frodo had gone for shelter if neither of those places existed?
Sauron was expelled from Dol Guldur in 2941 TA. Frodo was born on 2968 TA.
From the Book of Unfinished Tales: The Quest of Erebor

Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.
From the Book of Unfinished Tales: The Quest of Erebor

"I was very troubled at that time," he said, "for Saruman was hindering all my plans. I knew that Sauron had arisen again and would soon declare himself, and I knew that he was preparing for a great war. How would he begin? Would he try first to re-occupy Mordor, or would he first attack the chief strongholds of his enemies? I thought then, and I am sure now, that to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as he was strong enough was his original plan. It would have been a much better plan for him, and much worse for us.
"You may think that Rivendell was out of his reach, but I did not think so.
"I" is Gandalf.
How do I know that Sauron would have overtaken Lórien?
From LOTR: Appendix

Three times Lórien had been assailed from Dol Guldur. but besides the valour of the elven people of that land. the power that dwelt there was too great for any to overcome, unless Sauron had come there himself.

2. There is the matter of the Dragon too.
From the Book of Unfinished Tales: The Quest of Erebor

The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect. Often I said to myself: "I must find some means of dealing with Smaug. But a direct stroke against Dol Guldur is needed still more. We must disturb Sauron's plans. I must make the Council see that.'
From the Book of Unfinished Tales: The Quest of Erebor

"Better and better!' I thought. 'I think I shall risk it.' Time was getting short. I had to be with the White Council in August at the latest, or Saruman would have his way and nothing would be done. And quite apart from greater matters, that might prove fatal to the quest: the power in Dol Guldur would not leave any attempt on Erebor unhindered, unless he had something else to deal with.
So you see, with respect with dealing with the dragon, it was fundamental that Dol Guldur had to be attacked in order for the Quest to succeed with. No quest, no Bilbo returning to the Shire with the One Ring, which means that Sauron wins.

3. Look at the consequences of the White Council attacking Dol Guldur:
The Quest of Erebor was successful, and Smaug destroyed. The Kingdom under the Mountain was restored and Dale was strengthened. Bilbo was allowed to return to the shire and Frodo gained the Ring. Rivendell and Lórien were still safeguards of Elves. If both of those places had fallen, where would there have been the Council of Elrond? Would there have been an Elrond in the first place? The direct consequence of the attack of Dol Guldur provided the very means for the Quest of the destruction of the ring to succeed.

[Snaga]

Originally posted by Maedhros
The answer of course is obvious. It is the right decision.
It’s a sad fate to be asked to argue against the obvious. Perhaps the Periaur should concede now? There’s no shame in losing an unfair contest, is there?

But there’s no fun in that, so lets see if we can’t disprove the obvious. After all, the world is ‘obviously flat’, right?;)

What shines out in this is that what we are really looking at is a grandiose piece of self-justification on the part of Mithrandir, for what was really a set of delayed actions, and tactical assumptions which add up to a bungle that happened to pay off. In reality, Dol Guldur was a secondary target, and the assault achieved little.

Lets summarise Maedhros’ argument first:

(1) Without the attack, Sauron would have attacked and defeated Lorien and Rivendell, before setting up shop in Mordor
(2) If he had done so, Frodo would not have got to Mordor to destroy the Ring
(3) Anyway if the attack had not occurred, then Bilbo would not have got home with the Ring, because the Quest of Erebor would have failed

Lets examine the third point first. Lets face it, if Sauron gets the ring its game over. So is it the case? Firstly, Sauron has to know about the Quest of Erebor to do anything about it. How would he know? Can he get word from the orcs of the Misty Mountains? Perhaps… he might get word that some dwarves killed the Great Goblin and escaped. Maybe, just maybe, he would hear enough to deduce that Gandalf was with them. But that's not enough for him to realise what's going on. Dwarves traveled that way on many occasions. Gandalf’s presence means nothing. Anyway, do the messages get to Sauron? Well Beorn deals with the orc-raiders that head out of the mountains… so probably not. Even if they do… it’s a long way to Dol Guldur, and then a long way from there to pick up the scent… this is not looking a good scenario. Realistically, Dol Guldur can’t do anything before the Battle of Five Armies. Perhaps more orcs could have been sent to that battle? But so what? Bilbo puts on his Ring and disappears, and so it wouldn’t get discovered. This whole idea is such a stretch its untrue...

But in any event all that is really required is a distraction, and we’ll consider that what would best served shortly.

So lets consider the statement that Sauron would have attacked and defeated Lorien and Rivendell. There is nothing, beyond Gandalf’s bald statement, that backs that up at all. Dol Guldur was abandoned for just ten years. If it was such a great plan, why did Sauron not go through with it? A ten year delay was hardly crucial. Or maybe it was that not such a great plan. After all, if Sauron could be driven out of Dol Guldur so readily, who can believe that Sauron could take Lorien? Gandalf himself says Sauron would have to come, with the full strength used against Gondor and everyone else. So an early strike against Lorien was a non-starter. And if Lorien was impossible, Rivendell is a grey-beard’s delusion.

Thus, the final point about Frodo’s route to Mordor is irrelevant, as well as an attempt to use hindsight to justify a decision. But if we’re going to get into using the path Frodo needed to take as a criteria for decision-making, surely the target should have been Mordor itself? The Nazgul had occupied Minas Morgul, and had driven Gondor out of Ithilien. This was where the real action was, not the fantasy campaign against Lothlorien and Rivendell. Real battles, real war.

If the White Council wanted to fight somewhere, this was the place to go. This would have been just as good a distraction from events in Erebor. Gondor needed help, and if the strike against Dol Guldur had driven the Nazgul out of Minas Morgul, then the watch on Mordor could have been re-established after centuries of lapse. And thus, when the Ring was discovered, the route to Oroduin would have been clear.

As it was, between Gandalf’s delusional imaginings about Sauron’s intent, and Saruman’s desire to have an exclusive search of the Gladden Fields, the White Council selected the wrong target.

[Maedhros]

Bravo, I say bravo.

Originally posted by snaga1
But there’s no fun in that, so lets see if we can’t disprove the obvious.
I wouldn't have it any other way.

Originally posted by snaga1
Sauron has to know about the Quest of Erebor to do anything about it. How would he know?
How would Sauron know where to search for his ring in the Anduin near the Gladden Fields? Spies, orcs? Yet he knew.

Originally posted by snaga1
Dwarves traveled that way on many occasions. Gandalf’s presence means nothing. Anyway, do the messages get to Sauron?
Thráin the Dwarf is imprisoned in Dol Guldur in 2845. You might think that it was because he had a big party of dwarves around him. Probably the same as Thorin would have done if not for the advice of Gandalf. But wait,

Originally posted by snaga1
As it was, between Gandalf’s delusional imaginings about Sauron’s intent
So Gandalf was delusional in imagining that for the Quest to have any kind of success, secrecy was needed.

Originally posted by snaga1
There is nothing, beyond Gandalf’s bald statement, that backs that up at all. Dol Guldur was abandoned for just ten years. If it was such a great plan, why did Sauron not go through with it? A ten year delay was hardly crucial. Or maybe it was that not such a great plan. After all, if Sauron could be driven out of Dol Guldur so readily, who can believe that Sauron could take Lórien?
But of course the answer is still obvious. There are certain elements that have not been taken into account. Sauron had not yet revealed himself openly to his enemies. He still had the element of surprise, yet when he learned that his enemies are moving against him in Dol Guldur, he does the right thing and leaves for Mordor. In a war, it's better to attack an enemy one by one instead of facing them together.

Originally posted by snaga1
But if we’re going to get into using the path Frodo needed to take as a criteria for decision-making, surely the target should have been Mordor itself? The Nazgul had occupied Minas Morgul, and had driven Gondor out of Ithilien. This was where the real action was, not the fantasy campaign against Lothlorien and Rivendell. Real battles, real war.
This would of course, with no offense meant, prove to be a disaster for several reasons.
1.The White Council knew that it was Sauron that was in Dol Guldur. And you would send your forces to Gondor instead, knowing that Sauron is in Dol Guldur.
2. The road to Gondor is definitely longer than that of Dol Guldur. (If you are either in Lórien or Rivendell)
3. If somehow your troops are victorious in battle, what realistically can they hope to gain. Ithilien? Would they have overrun Barad dur? Of course not.
4. You would leave Sauron undisturbed in the North, with no dwarven Kingdom or a strong Dale, with a weakened Lórien instead. That doesn't makes sense.

Originally posted by snaga1
As it was, between Gandalf’s delusional imaginings about Sauron’s intent, and Saruman’s desire to have an exclusive search of the Gladden Fields, the White Council selected the wrong target.
Lets look at this little scenario:
The battle of the five armies is over, and you have the forces of Dol Guldur intact while the White Council is in route to Gondor. Could a weakened Lórien stand against it? Not really. And with this you can also add the possiblity of Sauron regaining an elven Ring. That's scary.
Would this make Bilbo's journey to the Shire easier? On the contrary it would be more difficult.
What did the attack on Dol Guldur achieved?
It gave the North, the Men of Dale and the Dwarven kingdom there to fortify themselves for future battles. The other side says that if Lórien was to be a great blow to the Elves, why didn't Sauron took a more personal approach then?
Simple. Sauron announced himself openly in 2951 TA. He knew of Gollum and of his ring in c. 3009 TA. That's 58 years. Regaining his ring was a priority that overule all others, and he didn't stop attacking the North, as the quotes provided by the Appendix prove.

[Feanorian]

To back up Maedhros:

Originally Posted by Snaga1
If the White Council wanted to fight somewhere, this was the place to go. This would have been just as good a distraction from events in Erebor. Gondor needed help


Gondor needed help..exactly, a march to the aid of Gondor would have proved more trouble then it was worth, how large were the armies of the White Council? Large enough to expell Sauron from Dol-Guldur but were they large enough to liberate Ithillien and/or Minas Morgul and provide Gondor with significant assistance, while at the same time keep Dol-Guldur in check? Going to the South would have given Sauron the ability to re-cooperate and organize armies out of the scattered orcs of the Misty Mountains and the evils of Mirkwood uniting them under one sole leadership, where they probably came from in the first place. Who would be there to stop them? Lorien? Rivendell? No their armies would be marching to the aid of Gondor leaving their kingdoms very accesible to attack. Gandalf knew action was needed on Dol Guldur as soon as possible, before Sauron was able to launch offensive attacks from both Minas Morgul and Dol Guldur. Sauron was keeping himself on the down low for a reason, he did not want the attention on him, he was not strong enough yet, he wanted his Nazgul to cause enough ruckus to bring the armies of The White Council to Gondor's aid.

[Snaga]

Originally posted by Maedhros
How would Sauron know where to search for his ring in the Anduin near the Gladden Fields? Spies, orcs? Yet he knew.But it takes Sauron about 2,800 years at least to come up with that piece of news. If that's his news-gathering potential, Thorin really had nothing to fear!


Originally posted by Maedhros
Thráin the Dwarf is imprisoned in Dol Guldur in 2845. You might think that it was because he had a big party of dwarves around him. Probably the same as Thorin would have done if not for the advice of Gandalf. A small point, of little relevance, but by-the-by its not correct. From Appendix A:
Little is known of what happened to him [ie Thrain] afterwards. It would now seem that as soon as he was abroad with few companions he was hunted by the emissaries of Sauron. But the same passage suggests that his pursuit of Thrain was directed at gathering the Seven, not just a random interception of any passing dwarves.


Originally posted by Maedhros
So Gandalf was delusional in imagining that for the Quest to have any kind of success, secrecy was needed.I didnt say that at all. I said that Gandalf had no evidence to believe that Sauron meant to attack Lothlorien or Rivendell. On the other hand there is a continual campaign against Gondor stretching over many centuries, and gaining in intensity as the Nazgul returned to Minas Morgul.


Originally posted by Maedhros
But of course the answer is still obvious. There are certain elements that have not been taken into account. Sauron had not yet revealed himself openly to his enemies. He still had the element of surprise, yet when he learned that his enemies are moving against him in Dol Guldur, he does the right thing and leaves for Mordor. In a war, it's better to attack an enemy one by one instead of facing them together.So in other words for the attack on Lorien to be successful, surprise is essential? Once he has 'revealed himself openly' the attack will not succeed? Then this is scarcely a cast-iron plan. And it blows the theory that Rivendell would fall, since there would be no element of surprise in that attack. Fundamentally, you have no evidence to back up the claim that attacking Rivendell and Lorien would be a 'better plan' as Gandalf claims, than the one on which Sauron actually uses, or any evidence that this 'better plan' ever existed.


Originally posted by Maedhros
This would of course, with no offense meant, prove to be a disaster for several reasons.
1.The White Council knew that it was Sauron that was in Dol Guldur. And you would send your forces to Gondor instead, knowing that Sauron is in Dol Guldur.
2. The road to Gondor is definitely longer than that of Dol Guldur. (If you are either in Lórien or Rivendell)
3. If somehow your troops are victorious in battle, what realistically can they hope to gain. Ithilien? Would they have overrun Barad dur? Of course not.
4. You would leave Sauron undisturbed in the North, with no dwarven Kingdom or a strong Dale, with a weakened Lórien instead. That doesn't makes sense.Except as previously explained, in this scenarion Sauron is still distracted from events in Erebor, still doesnt intervene and thus the dwarven Kingdom and Dale still get to be restored. Moreover, if the Nazgul are driven out, then Gondor has a stategic hold over Mordor, and its long-term decline is reversed. No, they could not have overrun Barad-Dur... as a cursory glance at the Tale of the Years tells me that it wasnt even rebuilt. Oh wait... what triggered that? Sauron's return - provoked by the attack on Dol Guldur! Thus, in my scenario, a strengthened Gondor is added to the strengthened North. In yours, Sauron's fruitless search in the Anduin is terminated by Saruman's lust for the Ring, and he begins to rebuild Barad-Dur! Such a great choice!


Originally posted by Maedhros
Lets look at this little scenario:
The battle of the five armies is over, and you have the forces of Dol Guldur intact while the White Council is in route to Gondor. Could a weakened Lórien stand against it? Not really. And with this you can also add the possiblity of Sauron regaining an elven Ring. That's scary. Why would Lorien be weakened? The power of Lorien rests on the Elven ring, which would not be wielded in attack, because it was not made for such a purpose.


Originally posted by Maedhros
Would this make Bilbo's journey to the Shire easier? On the contrary it would be more difficult.
What did the attack on Dol Guldur achieved?
It gave the North, the Men of Dale and the Dwarven kingdom there to fortify themselves for future battles. The other side says that if Lórien was to be a great blow to the Elves, why didn't Sauron took a more personal approach then?
Simple. Sauron announced himself openly in 2951 TA. He knew of Gollum and of his ring in c. 3009 TA. That's 58 years. Regaining his ring was a priority that overule all others, and he didn't stop attacking the North, as the quotes provided by the Appendix prove. You see, you are all in knots again! So now he's NOT planning to attack Lorien personally, cos he's looking for the Ring? Then you have no case at all...

[Snaga]

We posted at the same time Feanorian... let me reply to you


Originally posted by Feanorian
To back up Maedhros:


Gondor needed help..exactly, a march to the aid of Gondor would have proved more trouble then it was worth, how large were the armies of the White Council? Large enough to expell Sauron from Dol-Guldur but were they large enough to liberate Ithillien and/or Minas Morgul and provide Gondor with significant assistance, while at the same time keep Dol-Guldur in check? Going to the South would have given Sauron the ability to re-cooperate and organize armies out of the scattered orcs of the Misty Mountains and the evils of Mirkwood uniting them under one sole leadership, where they probably came from in the first place. Who would be there to stop them? Lorien? Rivendell? No their armies would be marching to the aid of Gondor leaving their kingdoms very accesible to attack. Gandalf knew action was needed on Dol Guldur as soon as possible, before Sauron was able to launch offensive attacks from both Minas Morgul and Dol Guldur. Sauron was keeping himself on the down low for a reason, he did not want the attention on him, he was not strong enough yet, he wanted his Nazgul to cause enough ruckus to bring the armies of The White Council to Gondor's aid. Not good enough Feanorian my friend. Firstly, the orcs of the Misty Mountains were quite organised enough to get themselves together for the Battle of Five Armies. They weren't scattered, they didnt need to be organised by Sauron. If they were, that's not something that can be resolved in the short space of time it takes to fight a battle. Organising armies is a lengthy business.

But its good you admit that Dol Guldur wasnt strong enough yet. There's that 'Dol Guldur was about to take over the Lorien and Rivendell theory' disappearing fast!!:D

Of course the idea that Sauron wanted the White Council to help Gondor is pretty amusing! I'm all agog waiting for you to show me some evidence for that one!;)

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
But it takes Sauron about 2,800 years at least to come up with that piece of news. If that's his news-gathering potential, Thorin really had nothing to fear!
Not really, Saruman was searching for the Ring in there in 2851 TA while Sauron did it in 2939 TA. 88 years of difference instead of the 2,800. That's huge.

Originally posted by snaga1
But the same passage suggests that his pursuit of Thrain was directed at gathering the Seven, not just a random interception of any passing dwarves.
More intelligence and spies required by Sauron then. Actually if Thrain's party is smaller it just makes my point better. It would be very simple to recognize the presence of a large party but it would be very difficult to recognize a small company of dwarves. If Thrain, did indeed had a small company like Thorin did, then there is a great probability that if not for the attack on Dol Guldur, they would have been captured by them.

Originally posted by snaga1
I didnt say that at all. I said that Gandalf had no evidence to believe that Sauron meant to attack Lothlorien or Rivendell. On the other hand there is a continual campaign against Gondor stretching over many centuries, and gaining in intensity as the Nazgul returned to Minas Morgul.
Yet Gandalf did have knowledge that Sauron was in Dol Guldur, and your idea is to leave with there confortably while the White Council goes to Gondor. What kind of strategy is that? It's a looser strategy of course.

Originally posted by snaga1
Once he has 'revealed himself openly' the attack will not succeed? Then this is scarcely a cast-iron plan. And it blows the theory that Rivendell would fall, since there would be no element of surprise in that attack. Fundamentally, you have no evidence to back up the claim that attacking Rivendell and Lorien would be a 'better plan' as Gandalf claims, than the one on which Sauron actually uses, or any evidence that this 'better plan' ever existed.
Well, Gandalf believe it so, and it was by his designs that Sauron was overthrown. You are forgetting the situation in those days. The North was very weak. You had Thranduil's Realm, Lórien and Rivendell. Dale and the Dwarven kingdom but a memory. The forces of Rivendell would have had to travel from Rivendell to Lórien. If Sauron would have taken Lórien, then who would have helped Rivendell? Smaug!

Originally posted by snaga1
Except as previously explained, in this scenarion Sauron is still distracted from events in Erebor, still doesnt intervene and thus the dwarven Kingdom and Dale still get to be restored.
Hehe. If only if it were that easy. A kingdom is not restored in a day or months. It takes years. Did the restoration of Dale was achieved in a day. Of course not. Could Sauron had overthrown them, of course. Why, because they were weaken by the battle remember.

Originally posted by snaga1
Moreover, if the Nazgul are driven out, then Gondor has a stategic hold over Mordor, and its long-term decline is reversed. No, they could not have overrun Barad-Dur... as a cursory glance at the Tale of the Years tells me that it wasnt even rebuilt. Oh wait... what triggered that? Sauron's return - provoked by the attack on Dol Guldur! Thus, in my scenario, a strengthened Gondor is added to the strengthened North. In yours, Sauron's fruitless search in the Anduin is terminated by Saruman's lust for the Ring, and he begins to rebuild Barad-Dur! Such a great choice!
First of all, there is the matter of logistics. How long would an army had to travel from the North (Lórien) to reach Gondor? And what about the consequences of such a battle? Would they have won such a battle? Could they hope to overtake that which the forces of Sauron had won? Would the forces of the White Council going south would not give Sauron a chance to ambush them?
Would not the forces of Sauron had overrun the North of ME? Who would stop them? Lórien or Rivendell, or the new fragile kingdoms of Dale and of the dwarves.
Something worse would have happened. You just don't leave the enemy in place and go to another place with your forces. It's insane, especially if Mordor was well guarded by Sauron's forces.

Originally posted by snaga1
Why would Lorien be weakened? The power of Lorien rests on the Elven ring, which would not be wielded in attack, because it was not made for such a purpose.
You are right. Galadriel only with her ring could hold the forces of Sauron. Those elven rings were good.

Originally posted by snaga1
You see, you are all in knots again! So now he's NOT planning to attack Lorien personally, cos he's looking for the Ring? Then you have no case at all...
Unfortunately for you, that's not the case. When the White Council attacked Dol Guldur, Sauron had no knowledge that his Ring had been found. After he knew that it was found, gaining it was his priority, as it should be.

[Feanorian]

Of course the idea that Sauron wanted the White Council to help Gondor is pretty amusing! I'm all agog waiting for you to show me some evidence for that one!
I must admit, wrongly spoken. But not completely invalid, why did the Nazgul invade once again without their master? Was it a random desire for the 9 to re-make war with Gondor? I think not, it was all part of Sauron's plan.


Not good enough Feanorian my friend. Firstly, the orcs of the Misty Mountains were quite organised enough to get themselves together for the Battle of Five Armies. They weren't scattered, they didnt need to be organised by Sauron. If they were, that's not something that can be resolved in the short space of time it takes to fight a battle. Organising armies is a lengthy business.

I am aware that organizing armies is a lengthy buisness which is why I made the point that a mustering of forces would not be noticed had the armies of the White Council not concentrated on Dol Guldur. How else could Sauron produce an army? He did not have the most time in the world to create a brand new competent army. I do not think organization would be a word that can ever descirbe orcs, they were united at the marching of the Elves and the men of Dale, as well as at the news of the death of the Great Goblin.

Back to your original post.


Originally Posted by Snaga1
Thus, the final point about Frodo’s route to Mordor is irrelevant, as well as an attempt to use hindsight to justify a decision. But if we’re going to get into using the path Frodo needed to take as a criteria for decision-making, surely the target should have been Mordor itself?


I do not think you can imediately rule the validity of hindsight out of the question. From Unfinished Tales:

It may have all gone very differently indeed. The main attack was diverted Southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his farstrechted right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while he defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dain had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon fire and savage swords in Eriador. There might be no Queen in Gondor, we might only hope to return here from the victory here to ruin and ash, but that has been averted-because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of Spring not far from Bree. A chance meeting as we say in Middle-Earth

This refers to what would have happened had the quest of Erebor would have failed and how crucial it was that it happened.


But its good you admit that Dol Guldur wasnt strong enough yet. There's that 'Dol Guldur was about to take over the Lorien and Rivendell theory' disappearing fast!!

I said he was not ready YET meaning that he could be, and Gandalf knew that, thats why not only action was needed on Dol Guldur but imediate action was critical.

[Elfarmari]

The question is
Considering all that happened after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur?
This means that hindsight is to be used to judge the action.

The War of the Ring was a close contest. While the forces of good prevailed at the Pelannor, at Lorien, Dale, Thranduil's realm and elsewhere, there were no easy victories.
Originally posted by Maedhros
1. Sauron in Dol Guldur with the proper time to prepare would have overtaken both Lorien and Rivendell. Where would Frodo have gone for shelter if neither of those places existed?
2. There is the matter of the Dragon too.
3. . . .The Quest of Erebor was successful, and Smaug destroyed. The Kingdom under the Mountain was restored and ale was strengthened. Bilbo was allowed to return to the shire and Frodo gained the rings. Rivendell and Lorien wre still safeguards of Elves.


From the Book of Unfinished Tales: The Quest of Erebor
Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lorien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first, and not spent more than half of it in the assault on Gondor.
If Dol Guldur had not been overthrown, Sauron would have been able to defeat Lorien, as shown by the next quote from the 'history' given in the appendices to LoTR. As Maedhros has stated, if Sauron could detect and capture a small party of dwarves travelling with Thrain, he could have learned of the movements of Thorin. Had Smaug not been slain, the Dragon could have been used by Sauron to further his gains in the North. Sauron spent 'more than half' of his forces in the assault of Gondor. What would have happened if Sauron had already defeated Lorien and perhaps Thranduil and Rivendell as well? Even if Dale and the Kingdom under the Mountain had been re-established, Sauron would have had many more armies at his disposal to defeat Gondor.


LOTR Appendix
Three times Lorien had been assailed from Dol Guldur, but besides the valour of the elven people of that land, the power that dwelt there was too great for any to overcome, unless Sauron had come there himself.
This quote is not by Gandalf, and clearly states that had Sauron been there, Lorien would have fallen. Also, even with the elven-ring, the valour of the elven people was needed to defend that land; they would not have been there had they marched to Gondor.

Bilbo and the Dwarves passed through Mirkwood, where Dol Guldur was located. This is completely supposition, but perhaps Sauron could have sensed the prescence of his One Ring close at hand when Bilbo used it?

Originally posted by Snaga1
After all, if Sauron could be driven out of Dol Guldur so readily, who can believe that Sauron could take Lorien?
Sauron was not driven out by force, he feignted to flee, while carrying out his plan to return to Mordor. This is not a good gauge of the strength of either Sauron or the White Council.
Another point concerning the proposed strike on Minas Morgul: would Saruman have considered it? Saruman supported the strike on Dol Guldur only because Sauron was beginning to search the Gladden Fields, thus threatening Saruman's own efforts. A strike on Minas Morgul would not have achieved this objective, and as such would probably have the opposition of the head of the White Council, Saruman.

[Snaga]

Hmm so many individual points here, that it is starting to get difficult to see the wood for the trees. (let alone any evil fortresses lurking amongst them;) )

Lets see if I can't recap a little. Going back to what the Scholars are struggling to prove:
(1) Without the attack, Sauron would have attacked and defeated Lorien and Rivendell, before setting up shop in Mordor
(2) If he had done so, Frodo would not have got to Mordor to destroy the Ring
(3) Anyway if the attack had not occurred, then Bilbo would not have got home with the Ring, because the Quest of Erebor would have failed

So far the argument that Sauron intends to attack Rivendell and Lorien rests on as Maedhros puts it:
Well, Gandalf believe it so, and it was by his designs that Sauron was overthrown. So we need to ask: was Gandalf infallible? If not, then further proof is required. I can offer ample evidence that Gandalf made frequent errors, and will do so if anyone wishes to advance this argument. But I will spare his blushes. Instead lets consider Elfamari's statement that:
Sauron was not driven out by force, he feignted to flee, while carrying out his plan to return to Mordor. Gotcha - his plan was to return to Mordor, right? Not to attack Lorien. Sold. I agree with Elfamari of the Scholars: Gandalf was wrong!

We've also established that Sauron could not have defeated Lothlorien. Again Maedhros says:
You are right. Galadriel only with her ring could hold the forces of Sauron. Those elven rings were good. and Feanorian concedes that
he was not ready YET . Its a false argument to say that years later if Sauron had come with full force, he could defeat Lorien, when in fact he was not ready to fight at the time that we are talking about. So in other words we have no risk of defeat even if Sauron does plan something. So then there is time for a lengthier march on Minas Morgul, even if it will take some extra time.

And the other side of the argument is that an attack on Dol Guldur was critical to the success of the Quest of Erebor. We've established that Sauron wasnt hunting dwarves, having now accounted for all the Seven Rings. We've deduced that the orcs of the Misty Mountains probably couldnt inform Sauron themselves, and that Sauron wouldnt have been especially worried about events until too late. He could not in any event have intervened before the fall of Smaug: the key strategic objective. At best he could LATER have marched on Dale and Erebor. Of course... he could have done that anyway. The attack meant he vacated Dol Guldur for ten years. For years after he could have attacked Erebor etc, but he didnt. Not until the War of the Ring. And nor is there any evidence that he wanted to, either. You can add more and more places to the list of targets for the hordes of Dol Guldur, but it only further begs the question. If Dol Guldur was so crucial, why did he give it up without a big fight? Either he was too weak to be a threat, or it was not a big part of his military plans. Where is the proof that there was a greater threat from Dol Guldur than from Minas Morgul?

Maybe after all, Saruman was closer to the mark. His motive for wanting Sauron out of Dol Guldur was to prevent him searching the Gladden Fields. It seems quite possible, that this was the real purpose of Dol Guldur: a base for searching for the Ring.

Then if we're using hindsight, this is a case of Sauron wasting his time on a fruitless search. When he could have been building up the strength of Mordor. And with hindsight, Saruman was using the White Council for his own ends: refusing to act for centuries, and then wishing to attack a relatively insignificant target, while Gondor suffers. Lets face it: this decision was Saruman's, not Gandalfs. And it is wholly in line with woeful record of the Istari under Saruman, that they sought their own knowledge and lore but let Arnor fall, and Gondor weaken. That Elfamari know wishes to justify this case of mis-targetting on the basis that its all Saruman would agree to says it all really. Saruman was the leader of the White Council: its his choice you need to justify!!

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
Gotcha - his plan was to return to Mordor, right? Not to attack Lorien. Sold. I agree with Elfamari of the Scholars: Gandalf was wrong!
Not really. If you stop and read carefully his remarks in Unfinished Tales is:

I thought then, and I am sure now, that to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as he was strong enough was his original plan.
Emphasis on the word original. Why would Gandalf think that? Because in 2851 TA he discovers that the Necromancer is indeed Sauron himself.
But you might ask yourself, how come Sauron was leaving Dol Guldur then, what happened?
It his ring of course. In 2939 TA Sauron is looking in the Anduin for his Ring. The Ring is the thing that guarantees his victory in ME. That discovery by him granted a change of Plans in his part, which proved to be not beneficial to Sauron.

Originally posted by snaga1
Its a false argument to say that years later if Sauron had come with full force, he could defeat Lorien, when in fact he was not ready to fight at the time that we are talking about. So in other words we have no risk of defeat even if Sauron does plan something. So then there is time for a lengthier march on Minas Morgul, even if it will take some extra time.
Not really. There is a weak point in there. If the White Council, moved his forces to Gondor, they would have been at a disadvantage because Sauron was moving southwards too and before them. He would know before their intentions and could have ambushed them easily. In Mordor his stregth was more than that of Dol Guldur.

Originally posted by snaga1
And the other side of the argument is that an attack on Dol Guldur was critical to the success of the Quest of Erebor.
But you forget now that, Gandalf and the White Council thought that Sauron was in Dol Guldur and that he was preparing for war. They had reason to be alarmed, they of course didn't know that Sauron was actually leaving it.

This is the Justification of the attack on Dol Guldur:
What about this point?
Saruman knew that Sauron was looking for the Ring, but he didn't known that Gollum had found it, by Saruman's knowledge, the Ring could have been there. He had to order the White Council to attack Dol Guldur because it was probable that Sauron could have found his ring and end the war.
Not only it was the right decision, but it was a necessary decision.


Originally posted by snaga1
Maybe after all, Saruman was closer to the mark. His motive for wanting Sauron out of Dol Guldur was to prevent him searching the Gladden Fields. It seems quite possible, that this was the real purpose of Dol Guldur: a base for searching for the Ring.
This of course sounds pretty but it's just wrong. Do we have a date when Sauron knew about the fate of his ring?
We have that in 2939 TA Sauron was looking for his ring in Anduin, yet Dol Guldur was founded in c. 1100 TA according to the wise. That's a difference of 1839 years. Wait for 1839 years to look for his ring is just plain nonsense.

Originally posted by snaga1
Then if we're using hindsight, this is a case of Sauron wasting his time on a fruitless search. When he could have been building up the strength of Mordor. And with hindsight, Saruman was using the White Council for his own ends: refusing to act for centuries, and then wishing to attack a relatively insignificant target, while Gondor suffers. Lets face it: this decision was Saruman's, not Gandalfs. And it is wholly in line with woeful record of the Istari under Saruman, that they sought their own knowledge and lore but let Arnor fall, and Gondor weaken. That Elfamari know wishes to justify this case of mis-targetting on the basis that its all Saruman would agree to says it all really. Saruman was the leader of the White Council: its his choice you need to justify!!
It was insight in the part of Gandalf. If Gandalf had his way, the White Council could have attacked Dol Guldur in 2851, way before than Sauron was looking for his ring in 2939. It was insight on the part of Gandalf when he understood that Bilbo had to be chosen for the quest and that Frodo was the one who would take the Ring to Mordor and the one who understood that Gollum had to play a part in that.

[Elbereth]

First of all, bravo to the Scholar team...you have some strong arguments...but I must admit you have the easy side of the argument...but lets get the dates straight now.


Emphasis on the word original. Why would Gandalf think that? Because in 2851 TA he discovers that the Necromancer is indeed Sauron himself. But you might ask yourself, how come Sauron was leaving Dol Guldur then, what happened?
It his ring of course.

Actually, you're a bit off in your dates... according to the Tale of years in Appendix B of LOTR,

(2060TA): The wise first suspect that the power in Dol Goldur may actually be Sauron taking shape, and three years later (2063), Gandalf first goes to Dol Goldur to confront him. It is then that Sauron retreats and hides in the east, begining the Watchful peace that last from 2063TA-2460TA.

Then in 2850, Gandalf discovers that Sauron is indeed the master of Dol Guldur, that he is searching for the One Ring and for Isildur's Heir. And it is in 2851, that Gandalf urges the White Council to attack Dol Guldur...but Saruman overrules him.

Therefore, Sauron remained in Dol Guldur from the end of the Watchful Peace (2460TA) until he was driven out by the White Council (2941TA) after:


Sauron having made his plans abandons Dol Guldur

It is clear by this statement that Sauron was not simply driven out...he planned to leave when he did.

In 2939 it is clear that Sauron knows of Isildur's demise, and realizes that the ring is not in the hands of Isildur's heirs. He sends his servants to search the Anduin near the Gladden Fields, he does not need to focus his energy on the search any longer,as he believes he is close to discovering it... his focus is on the next step...Gondor.

In hindsight, it may have been better to keep him in Dol Guldur a little bit longer, where the White Council knew where he was and could keep an eye on him, track his movements and possibly find a weak spot. Instead they hastily attack...and he disappears from sight for 10 years until, the White Council finds out too late that he returned to Mordor in secret where he was able to strengthen his forces and rebuild Barad-dur without the prying eye of the west upon him.

[Legolam]

I'm afraid I must respectfully disagree with my fellow Periaur:

It’s a sad fate to be asked to argue against the obvious
you have the easy side of the argument I believe that the White Council were completely misguided in their action to drive Sauron from Dol Guldur, especially considering what happened after.

Elbereth touched on this in the last post, and I'd like to expand on her thoughts. I think the point has been made that Sauron already intended to leave his forest stronghold:

Sauron having made his plans abandons Dol Guldur
The White Council attack only acted as a catalyst to his movement to Mordor. There, he is more powerful and more capable of launching an attack against the West. By the Scholars' own admission:

Originally posted by Maedhros
In Mordor his stregth was more than that of Dol Guldur

The White Council were wrong to simply drive Sauron from Dol Guldur. They should have finished the job there and then, thus saving thousands of lives in the aftermath.

Consider this scenario:
Sauron has had several years to take shape and plan his move back to his stronghold of Mordor. In fact, he has been building up armies there, waiting for his return. His main reason for remaining in Dol Guldur is his search for the ring, which has proved fruitless so far. However, instead of merely driving him to execute his plan to return to Mordor sooner, the White Council attack him with a coherent force, keeping him in Dol Guldur. Sauron does not expect this and has few forces to deal with the attack of such a powerful council. Almost similtaneously (in fact, a little before the attack), Bilbo finds the Ring. The Ring is taken to Mordor (where there is no Sauron and the forces there are less daunting. Heck, why not take an eagle!) and destroyed, thus destroying Sauron forever. Thousands of lives are saved. The End.

[Snaga]

Indeed, Legolam that would have been a better plan.

Of course this relies on the good sense of Gandalf, on whose infallibility the Scholar's case rests. By the end of the Battle of Five Armies, Gandalf knows that Bilbo has a ring. Yet in his grandiose geo-political imaginings, the critical piece of the jigsaw is overlooked. Bilbo has a ring? Which ring could it be? Not the three, and not the nine. Gandalf more than anyone would know it wasnt one of the Seven, as he found Thrain in Dol Guldur who told him Sauron had taken the last of the Seven.

Bilbo has found a Great Ring, and all of them are accounted for except for the One. Its the only possibility, but in his infallible wisdom he misses the blindly obvious. He misses it then, doesnt even suspect for sixty years, and takes no coherent action for a further 17 years! So with this track record we have to take on trust that Sauron wanted to attack Lothlorien and Rivendell.

Maedhros now dates the abandonment of this so-called plan from 2939 - Sauron discovers the ring is still at large and is going back to Mordor. Of course, this is actually only when Saruman discovers Sauron is searching in the Gladden Fields: it could have been much longer. Whatever... the White Council is supposedly countering a plan that Sauron actually isnt using! In fact the attack is part of Saruman's masterplan, to find the Ring and rival Sauron. Considering all events afterwards, we know Sarumans plan fails... this was a flawed decision in the corrupt plans of Saruman.

But lets try and ignore the fact that this certainly wasnt Sauron's plan at the time. Was it ever his plan? Here's what Denethor says to Pippin about Sauron's MO:
He will not come save only to triumph over me when all is won. He uses others as his weapons. So do all great lords, if they are wise, Master HalflingIt defies creduility that if he was preparing to assault Lothlorien, the Nazgul would be at Minas Morgul. Lets look at the forces at Dol Guldur. The words of Haldir to Frodo:
'In the midst upon a stony height stands Dol Guldur, where long the hidden enemy had his dwelling. We fear now it is inhabited again, and with power sevenfold.'It WAS a secret dwelling... but now it is stronger. Not strong enough to defeat Lorien in war, even though it is estimated to be seven times as strong. This threat, was 1/7th of the force that failed to defeat Lothlorien in the War of the Ring, which doesnt have any of the Nazgul in support, clearly wasnt planning an assault at all.

Maedhros thinks it could 'easily' have ambushed a force sent from Lorien to Gondor. But Galadriel was well capable of helping Eorl the Young ride to the Field of Celebrant with her power. Its pretty clear she could have helped the White Council in the same way. But in any case Dol Guldur was a 'secret dwelling' from which Sauron was hoping to conduct a quiet search, which he would not have wanted to draw attention to. A search we now know to be a waste of his energies...


Originally Posted by Maedhros
But you forget now that, Gandalf and the White Council thought that Sauron was in Dol Guldur and that he was preparing for war. They had reason to be alarmed, they of course didn't know that Sauron was actually leaving it.

This is the Justification of the attack on Dol Guldur:
What about this point?
Saruman knew that Sauron was looking for the Ring, but he didn't known that Gollum had found it, by Saruman's knowledge, the Ring could have been there. He had to order the White Council to attack Dol Guldur because it was probable that Sauron could have found his ring and end the war.
Not only it was the right decision, but it was a necessary decision.On the first point in fact Saruman knew very well what Sauron was doing from Dol Guldur. He'd discovered Sauron's search. He just didnt tell the White Council, because he wanted to manipulate them into this mistaken decision, without reminding them that the One might be up for grabs. But if they were confident of assailing Dol Guldur, they couldnt have believe it to be capable of imminent attack. An attacking force must be MUCH greater than the defending force... they KNEW Dol Guldur was weak. This wasnt big news though: in all its years from its discovery by the Wise in 1100 TA, through to the events we are considering 1800 years later there isnt EVER an attack from Dol Guldur. Not one!

On the second point, I see you are now backing Saruman's reasoning. This despite the flaws in it that we now understand.
Considering all that happened after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur? As Elfamari points out, we can use the benefit hindsight to know Saruman was wrong. The Ring wasnt there to be found...

What we do know is that Sauron continued on his plan to rebuild Mordor, unopposed by Saruman or the White Council, to the point where Gondor was too weak to hold off the attacks for long. What else resulted from the failure of the Wise to support Gondor in its long struggle against Mordor? The further estrangement between Elves and Men. The suspicion of the Istari by Denethor, and perhaps even his despairing use of the Palantir? None of which would have caused any loss of sleep for Saruman the Aspirant Ring-lord, chief architect of this useless attack.

[Elfarmari]

Originally posted by snaga1 Instead lets consider Elfamari's statement that: Gotcha - his planwas to return to Mordor, right? Not to attack Lorien. Sold. I agreewith Elfamari of the Scholars: Gandalf was wrong!
Apparently I did not clarify myself: I meant that Sauron planned to [I[eventually[/I] return to Mordor, and used the attack of the White Council as a way to accomplish this inconspicuously. This is an inference on my part, as far as I know this plan is nowhere mentioned by Tolkien. While Gandalf is by no means infallible, he is the wisest of the Istari, and we are given no reason (that I know of) to doubt that his assesments were incorrect.

If Dol Guldur was so crucial, why did he give it up without a big fight? Either he was too weak to be a threat, or it was not a big part of his military plans. Where is the proof that there was a greater threat from Dol Guldur than from Minas Morgul?
Dol Guldur was the abode of Sauron, while Minas Morgul was the abode of his servants. Should the White Council succeed in destroying Sauron, the servants would be of no consequence.

And with hindsight, Saruman was using the White Council for his ownends: refusing to act for centuries, and then wishing to attack a relatively insignificant target, while Gondor suffers. Lets face it: this decision was Saruman's, not Gandalfs. And it is wholly in line with woeful record of the Istari under Saruman, that they sought their own knowledge and lore but let Arnor fall, and Gondor weaken. That Elfamari know wishes to justify this case of mis-targetting on the basis that its all Saruman would agree to says it all really. Saruman was the leader of the White Council: its his choice you need to justify!!
Saruman was the head of the White Council, yes, but he was working for his own ends, meaning that Gandalf, along with Elrond and Galadriel, were the ones trying to decide what action would benefit the fight against evil the most. I take the original question to mean 'did the attack on Dol Guldur help or hinder the overall aim of the White Council [aside from Saruman's selfish reasons.' I think a different reading would completely change the focus of the debate. Gandalf knew that he could not do much against the opposition of Saruman. He also knew that some stroke was desperately needed. The move against Dol Guldur was the correct decision, given these conditions.

[Snaga]

While you may know of no reason to doubt Gandalf, a track record which is far from perfect is good enough for me not to take it on trust! Even Gandalf says to Gimli:
'it is a comfort not to be mistaken at all points. Do I not know it only too well!' Unarguable!

However, I now note you are adding to the balance sheet that Sauron
used the attack of the White Council as a way to accomplish this inconspicuously - in other words the attack gave him a cover for his move. Marvellous!

There's no mileage in suggesting that an attack on Dol Guldur could destroy Sauron. Not while the One is at large.

Finally, although you may wish to debate the question
'did the attack on Dol Guldur help or hinder the overall aim of the White Council [aside from Saruman's selfish reasons].' that is actually a significantly different question to the one we are discussing. We are debating
Considering all that happened after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur? This means that you cannot say your decision was right because Saruman would have vetoed a better plan. If there was a better decision, then this one was wrong, and Saruman, Gandalf, Galadriel and Elrond (and Radagast?) should have come to that decision, selfish motivations notwithstanding. Yes, it may well be inconvenient to your case that Saruman did not have the collective good of the Free people's of Middle Earth at heart. That doesnt mean you can change the question.

Was it the right decision? No, the wrong decision was taken because Saruman was manipulating the council.

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
Saruman was the leader of the White Council: its his choice you need to justify!!
His justification is:
Saruman knew that Sauron was looking for the Ring, but he didn't known that Gollum had found it, by Saruman's knowledge, the Ring could have been there. He had to order the White Council to attack Dol Guldur because it was probable that Sauron could have found his ring and end the war.
Not only it was the right decision, but it was a necessary decision.
then we have:

Originally posted by snaga1
Maybe after all, Saruman was closer to the mark. His motive for wanting Sauron out of Dol Guldur was to prevent him searching the Gladden Fields. It seems quite possible, that this was the real purpose of Dol Guldur: a base for searching for the Ring.
Of course at this point Saruman doesn't know that Gollum had found the ring, and it is quite possible that Sauron could have found his Ring.
then we have:

Originally posted by snaga1
cos he's looking for the Ring?
and the obvious and logical conclusion would be that you would need to avoid Sauron getting his ring back at any costs yet the other side arguement is:

Originally posted by snaga1
If the White Council wanted to fight somewhere, this was the place to go. This would have been just as good a distraction from events in Erebor. Gondor needed help
Leaving Sauron with time to keep searching for his ring. Not only is this illogical and irrational but stupid.
Fortunately for the other side, we have:

Originally posted by Legolam
The White Council were wrong to simply drive Sauron from Dol Guldur. They should have finished the job there and then, thus saving thousands of lives in the aftermath.
So this means two things. That it was the right thing to go and attack Dol Guldur unlike snaga1 theory. Of course Legolam is missing the very important fact that Saruman knew that Sauron was looking for the Ring and that he had no knowledge that Gollum had it. So a strike against Dol Guldur would prevent Sauron from the possibility of obtaining the Ring.
Remember the topic:

Considering all that happend after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur??
The White Council thought that their attack would drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur, Sauron had already fled. The attack was in 2941 TA.

Originally posted by Legolam
In fact, he has been building up armies there, waiting for his return. His main reason for remaining in Dol Guldur is his search for the ring, which has proved fruitless so far. However, instead of merely driving him to execute his plan to return to Mordor sooner, the White Council attack him with a coherent force, keeping him in Dol Guldur. Sauron does not expect this and has few forces to deal with the attack of such a powerful council.
There is an error of course. Saruman of the White Council was the only one who knew that Sauron was searching for the Ring. The White Council had no knowledge that Sauron was leaving to Mordor. All they knew is that Sauron was there. How can you expect to foil Sauron's plans when you don't even know them?
Doesn't makes sense either. And of course there is the question of timing. The White council didn't meet every day. The White Council met in 2941 TA to attack Dol Guldur, the same time when we already left it, the last White Council meeting was in 2851 TA, and if was Gandalf the one who urged the Council to attack Dol Guldur but according to

Originally posted by snaga1
a track record which is far from perfect is good enough for me not to take it on trust!
Gandalf track record is not good enough for snaga1 but it's good enough for Legolam.

Originally posted by Elbereth
In hindsight, it may have been better to keep him in Dol Guldur a little bit longer, where the White Council knew where he was and could keep an eye on him, track his movements and possibly find a weak spot. Instead they hastily attack...and he disappears from sight for 10 years until, the White Council finds out too late that he returned to Mordor in secret where he was able to strengthen his forces and rebuild Barad-dur without the prying eye of the west upon him.
Where the Council knew where he was? Are you talking about the same council that went to attack him and then they noticed that he was not there? If they couldn't even track his location, how could they find a weak spot?
So Saruman knowing that Sauron was looking for the Ring, and that the possiblity existed that Sauron could have found it and end the war, and it was better to let Sauron in peace there? What kind of strategy is that? Allow your enemy to get the one thing he most desires?
This just don't make sense.

Originally posted by Elbereth
First of all, bravo to the Scholar team...you have some strong arguments
Do I need say more.;)

[Snaga]

So at last, you admit that your argument is really just a question of promoting Saruman's tactics, and nothing to do with Gandalf's geopolitical delusions.

But while you may be right that it seemed the right thing to do, in fact we know that it was pointless to attempt to disrupt his search. Because Sauron would never have found anything. So therefore it might have seemed to be right thing for Saruman to do to advance his prospects for world domination, it was actually a no-win tactic for him.

So you're still left with a pointless attack, which did nothing to disrupt Sauron's rise, and if anything helped it.

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
So at last, you admit that your argument is really just a question of promoting Saruman's tactics, and nothing to do with Gandalf's geopolitical delusions.
I would seem logical to me that Sauron not obtaining his ring was in accordance to the White Council tactics along with Gandalf tactics too. After all, it was Gandalf who wanted to assault Dol Guldur way before the attack took place. So no delusion.

Originally posted by snaga1
But while you may be right that it seemed the right thing to do, in fact we know that it was pointless to attempt to disrupt his search. Because Sauron would never have found anything. So therefore it might have seemed to be right thing for Saruman to do to advance his prospects for world domination, it was actually a no-win tactic for him.
Oh, now we are moving in the right direction. We as readers are outside the story. The characters of course have only limited knowledge to make their plans, but to leave Sauron there with the possibility of finding his ring is just plain insane. Who wins if Sauron get his ring. Not the good guys.

Originally posted by snaga1
So you're still left with a pointless attack, which did nothing to disrupt Sauron's rise, and if anything helped it.
Well, according to:

Originally posted by Legolam
The White Council were wrong to simply drive Sauron from Dol Guldur. They should have finished the job there and then, thus saving thousands of lives in the aftermath.

He said that they could have destroy him and saved hundreds of lives, unlike you who believe that they should have gone instead to help Gondor.

Originally posted by Legolam
I'm afraid I must respectfully disagree with my fellow Periaur:
Going to Gondor would be foolish to say the least. Sauron forces in Mordor were greater than that in Dol Guldur. Wouldn't it be logical to atack Dol Guldur where Sauron is with a weaker force and beat him instead of going into Mordor where his forces are stronger. It is logical and obvious.
The topic is:

Considering all that happend after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Goldur??
Of course it should read:Considering all that hapened after, did the White Council make the right decision when they thought to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur?
Yes, because Saruman thought that Sauron could find the ring and that would have been disastrous. The thought of Sauron getting his ring and conquering ME, one would think that would be well obvious and logical.

[Elbereth]

Of course it should read:Considering all that hapened after, did the White Council make the right decision when they thought to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur?

Although the fact remains, the topic of this debate does not say that...we are not trying to find out if it was the right decision for the White Council "when they thought" to drive out the Necromancer from Dol Guldur.

The topic is:


Considering all that hapened after, did the White Council make the right decision to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur?
I would say not.
-----


Where the Council knew where he was? Are you talking about the same council that went to attack him and then they noticed that he was not there? If they couldn't even track his location, how could they find a weak spot?
Actually, Gandalf did know where he was...and so did the council years before they choose to attack.

The White Council made a mistake not to do anything when they first knew about Sauron in Dol Guldur. Yes, they should have attacked Dol Guldur in 2851TA when the window of opportunity was open to them. However, they did not. And when they did decide to attack in 2941 that window had long since been shut.
They should have to come up with a new strategy. I understand why they did not...they were still under the leadership of Sauruman, who we now see did not have the council's goals in mind when he made the decision to simply attack Dol Guldur. Yes, it seemed like a good decision at the time...we all know the council had good intentions....but ultimately, it lead to empowerment of Sauron and the rebuilding of Mordor.

Also, let us not forget that up until Frodo threw that ring into the pits of Mordor, all the odds appeared to be stacked against our heroes. It is only by chance and luck that Frodo managed to get to Baradur and throw the ring into the pits of Utumno. Otherwise, the West would have surely lost...regardless of whether Sauron found his ring at that time or not.

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by Elbereth
Although the fact remains, the topic of this debate does not say that...we are not trying to find out if it was the right decision for the White Council "when they thought" to drive out the Necromancer from Dol Guldur.
One would think that logic and common sense would be abundant in the Guild area of TTF, unfortunately you can be surprised.
How do you drive out someone who is not there?

Originally posted by Elbereth
Actually, Gandalf did know where he was...and so did the council years before they choose to attack.
and when Elbereth is asked if the decision to attack was good she says:

Originally posted by Elbereth
I would say not.
Yet when asked about the proper action she says:

The White Council made a mistake not to do anything when they first knew about Sauron in Dol Guldur. Yes, they should have attacked Dol Guldur in 2851TA when the window of opportunity was open to them. However, they did not. And when they did decide to attack in 2941 that window had long since been shut.
So the conclusion is than an assault on Dol Guldur would be the right thing to do, knowing that Sauron was still there of course.
So the logical conclusion would be:

Considering all that hapened after, did the White Council make the right decision when they thought to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur?
Of Course.

Originally posted by Elbereth
Also, let us not forget that up until Frodo threw that ring into the pits of Mordor, all the odds appeared to be stacked against our heroes. It is only by chance and luck that Frodo managed to get to Baradur and throw the ring into the pits of Utumno. Otherwise, the West would have surely lost...regardless of whether Sauron found his ring at that time or not.
Wow. Frodo threw the Ring in the pits of Utumno. I guess that he felt that the fire of Mount Doom wasn't enough to destroy the Ring and he transported himself back in time and space to Utumno before the Valar destroyed it and chained Melkor and brought him back to Valinor. I missed that one, is that in the appendices? Frodo the time traveller.
Notice another inconsistency:

Originally posted by Elbereth
Otherwise, the West would have surely lost...regardless of whether Sauron found his ring at that time or not.
I think we need to have the facts straightened out. If Sauron get his ring, it's over. Plain and simple, and using a little common sense, how could Frodo destroy the ring if Sauron had it?
Maybe that is explained in the hidden appendices when Frodo goes back in time and space to Utumno, damn I must have missed that.;)
There is a better posibility of course now that I know of the Hidden appendices that you might use. Make Bilbo transport himself back in time and space to Utumno to destroy the ring and lots of people would be saved.:cool:

[Snaga]

[edit: I deleted and then reposted this so it allowed Maedhros' reply to Elbereth to follow her post]

Maedhros, you seem to like to compare different points made by the Periaur team. We may have differing views about WHY the decision was wrong, but it helps you not one bit in proving that the decision was right!

Now I'm trying to follow your train of thought, but you're not very clear. You are arguing now that it looked right to the White Council, and their imperfect knowledge should be accepted as an excuse for a wrong decision, and we should conclude that although it was objectively wrong, it was subjectively right.

I don't accept that reasoning. We know from what "what happened after" that it was wrong. The End.

But, I'll humour you...

Of course ONLY Saruman knew of Sauron's search for the Ring. So this might be HIS private reason for the attack on Dol Guldur, but it in no way accounts for the decision of the White Council. It is not their collective reasoning. Saruman manipulated the council out of his personal ring-lust, but the Council as a whole had to convince themselves that attacking Dol Guldur served some wider geo-political purpose.

But we have established that it was not a source of military threat, was not the source of any attacks, and that the real forces of evil lay in Minas Morgul. Moreover, the White Council was very well aware of it.

So now lets look at this decision, from the standpoint of whether this decision was 'subjectively right'. Of course not: there was no basis for them to believe this was where the main threat was. To throw in what other information they MIGHT have considered based on what is convenient to your position (ie that Sauron was searching) but ignore what is not convenient (ie that the Ring wasnt there) is not a good argument.

Your arguments for this attack are weak, but your argument against supporting Gondor are positively spineless:
Originally Posted By Maedhros
Going to Gondor would be foolish to say the least. Sauron forces in Mordor were greater than that in Dol Guldur. Wouldn't it be logical to atack Dol Guldur where Sauron is with a weaker force and beat him instead of going into Mordor where his forces are stronger. It is logical and obvious.At this stage Sauron is relatively weak compared to the time of the War of the Ring. He has not gathered the armies of the Easterlings and the Haradrim to him. He hasnt bred the orc armies on the scale later seen. Barad-Dur is still a ruin.

Lorien is stronger than it later is. Gondor is waning but it still stronger than in Denethor's day. With the combined might of the Wise, their armies could have driven the Nazgul out of Minas Morgul.

Of the attack on Dol Guldur Gandalf says:
But we were too late as Elrond foresaw. Sauron had watched us, and had long prepared against our stroke, governing Mordor from afar through Minas Morgul where his Nine servants dwelt until all was ready. They KNEW it was a pointless exercise. They KNEW where the real power base was. But they chose the pyrrhic victory, over a battle that might mean something.

There is a theme running through the whole of the Lord of the Rings about the estrangement of races who ought to be united in the face of evil. They do not fight together, and divided they are doomed to fall one by one. Particularly when their leaders are corrupted, whether by desire for power or despair. The White Council was as guilty of this as any, leaving an assault on Dol Guldur until too late, and doing nothing at all to help Gondor.

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
Maedhros, you seem to like to compare different points made by the Periaur team. We may have differing views about WHY the decision was wrong, but it helps you not one bit in proving that the decision was right!
Silly me, I thought that proving that if the decision was right was the objective of my side of the debate. Doh.:eek:

Originally posted by snaga1
Now I'm trying to follow your train of thought, but you're not very clear. You are arguing now that it looked right to the White Council, and their imperfect knowledge should be accepted as an excuse for a wrong decision, and we should conclude that although it was objectively wrong, it was subjectively right.
There are facts and there are speculations:
Fact: Sauron get the ring, it's over.
Fact: Saruman knew that Sauron was looking for the Ring.
Fact: The White Council doesn't want Sauron to win.
Fact: Saruman didn't know that Gollum had the ring.
Logical conclusion if you want to win: Prevent Sauron for obtaining his ring.
How do you do that: by making him stop looking for the ring. Simple.
Illogical conclusion if you want to loose: allow Sauron to continue looking for his ring, while you go South to Gondor.

Conclusion reached by snaga1
I don't accept that reasoning.
Fortunately for the periaur we have:

Originally posted by Legolam
I'm afraid I must respectfully disagree with my fellow Periaur:
According to Legolam, Sauron could have been destroyed by attacking him in Dol Guldur, or now with the new knowledge provided by Elbereth of the Hidden appendices of LOTR, Bilbo or Frodo could have traveled back in time to Utumno and destroy the Ring.

Originally posted by snaga1
Of course ONLY Saruman knew of Sauron's search for the Ring. So this might be HIS private reason for the attack on Dol Guldur, but it in no way accounts for the decision of the White Council. It is not their collective reasoning. Saruman manipulated the council out of his personal ring-lust, but the Council as a whole had to convince themselves that attacking Dol Guldur served some wider geo-political purpose.
There was this member called Gandalf that wanted to attack Dol Guldur since 2851 TA. And there is also the point made by Legolam that Sauron was an easier target in Dol Guldur because he had not the force that he had in Mordorrrrr.

Conclusion reached by snaga1
But we have established that it was not a source of military threat, was not the source of any attacks, and that the real forces of evil lay in Minas Morgul. Moreover, the White Council was very well aware of it.
When they went to drive the Necromancer from Dol Guldur was when they found that Sauron was not there, not before.
and with this:

Originally posted by snaga1
At this stage Sauron is relatively weak compared to the time of the War of the Ring. He has not gathered the armies of the Easterlings and the Haradrim to him. He hasnt bred the orc armies on the scale later seen. Barad-Dur is still a ruin.
Mordor was so weak then but how is it that they gained some territory of Gondor? :confused: Shouldn't it be the other way around?
But my friend uses the following as his argument:

Originally posted by snaga1
But we were too late as Elrond foresaw. Sauron had watched us, and had long prepared against our stroke, governing Mordor from afar through Minas Morgul where his Nine servants dwelt until all was ready.
What he fails to say is that, this took place during the Council of Elrond in 3018 TA, when the actual attack was in 2491 TA. Only 527 years after. Doh.:eek:

[Snaga]

Oh dear Maedhros that's desperate!

Firstly proving that Legolam and I have differing views of WHY the decision is wrong doesnt not prove you are right. I said that before. Continuing with that tactic even when you've been called on it is not going to hoodwink our esteemed judges. I'd drop that one.

Your four selected facts are STILL ignoring that the White Council's decision wasnt based on knowledge of Sauron's search. That was CONCEALED from them by Saruman.

Let me spell it out.

EITHER: you're claiming its a 'subjectively right' decision in which case, you can't use the fact of Sauron's search, because as a whole the Council didnt use it to make their decision, and you are back on the 'geo-politics' argument.

OR: you're claiming it was 'objectively right'; in which case the fact that the Ring was not in danger of discover nullifies your argument.

Since you refer to Gandalf's previous desire to attack (in 2851), let me make some observations. If there was a purpose then (and even then it would be better to deal with Minas Morgul), at least at that point Sauron wasnt ready to leave. Hence the quote about Elrond having forseen that the attack was too late. Geddit? Let me lay it out...

2851: Gandalf wants to attack. White Council doesnt agree
2941: The White Council decides to attack. Sauron has prepared. Elronds forsees the attack will be too late. As the Council attack, Sauron goes to Mordor, as he always meant to.

Whatever the merits of an attack in 2851, the attack in 2941 was futile. And that's the one that we are debating.

On the question of how strong was Mordor, you don't seem to understand why its good to have allies in a war.

2941: Gondor is quite strong, but Mordor is stronger. But Gondor PLUS the White Council is stronger still.... that's not so hard, is it??

3019: Gondor is not very strong. Mordor by this stage is strong enough to attack Gondor, Lorien and Erebor simultaneously... because the growing power of Mordor was never tackled while it was still possible.

----------------------
PS: As you have decided to resort to ridiculing Elbe's admittedly funny slips, let me just point out:

Originally Posted By Maedhros
this took place during the Council of Elrond in 3018 TA, when the actual attack was in 2491 TA. Only 527 years after. Doh. Erm... nope! The date of the attack was 2941, and the Council of Elrond was 77 years later. As you say... 'Doh!'

[Maedhros]

Originally posted by snaga1
EITHER: you're claiming its a 'subjectively right' decision in which case, you can't use the fact of Sauron's search, because as a whole the Council didnt use it to make their decision, and you are back on the 'geo-politics' argument.
And to think that Saruman is the leader of the White Council, the one who gave the approval.

Originally posted by snaga1
OR: you're claiming it was 'objectively right'; in which case the fact that the Ring was not in danger of discover nullifies your argument.
Not really. As I have stated before, to not disrupt Sauron was a chance for him to regain the ring. Saruman knew that. To not attempt to disrupt it is just plain Illogical.
I will like to point out a new element so to avoid going in circles here.
Just who is this Mysterious Force of the White Council?

Originally posted by snaga1
2941: Gondor is quite strong, but Mordor is stronger. But Gondor PLUS the White Council is stronger still.... that's not so hard, is it??
Oh really? Just how strong are the Forces of the White Council? Who were it's forces constituted? Were they made up of Elves, Men, dwarves ?
Can you prove with facts and not just words that such a force could have tipped the balance in favor of Gondor?
P.S.

PS: As you have decided to resort to ridiculing Elbe's admittedly funny slips
In retrospect, my remarks do seem inapropiate and I apologize to Elbereth.
Now having said that, I find it interesting that ridiculing an admittedly funny slip brings a response from a periaur yet an attack on a person (not his posts) brings no response whatsoever. Not even a single word. It makes me wonder. Doh.

[Snaga]

If I have attacked anyone (rather than their posts) I apologise. I honestly can't see where, but if I did I am sorry and didnt mean it. I held back from calling you 'Maedhros of Many Colours', although I can think of more than one reason why that might fit!;) j/k!

You say
As I have stated before, to not disrupt Sauron was a chance for him to regain the ring. No it wasnt. There was no chance for him to get the ring. Saruman was wrong, remember?

You want me to prove that the intervention of the White Council would have tipped the balance in favour of Gondor.

Well, lets paint the picture first of all.

Minas Ithil/Morgul was captured by the Nazgul in 2002. They remain quiet (save for the 'duel' with King Earnur) until 2475, when Osgiliath is abandoned. Thereafter things are quiet: the Nazgul do not press their advantage across the Anduin. Why might this be?

A clue comes when we examine the events of 2885 - and now we are right in the time when Gandalf wants to attack Dol Guldur...
In the days of Turin II the enemies of Gondor began to move again; for Sauron was grown to power and the day of his arising was near. All but the hardiest of its people deserted Ithilien and removed over Anduin, for that land was infested with Mordor-orcs. Yes... Sauron may be arising in Dol Guldur, but its Gondor that is feeling the effect... lets continue that passage, skipping a sentence or two...
But his chief peril lay in the south, where the Haradrim had occupied South Gondor, and there was much fighting along the Poros. When Ithilien was invaded in great strength, King Folcwine of Rohan fulfilled the Oath of Eorl and repaide his debt for aid brought by Beregond, sending many men to Gondor. With their aid, Turin won a victory at the crossing of the Poros; but the sons of Folcwine both fell in the battle. So a BIGGER threat was in the south, but Gondor was able to master it, without only the help from Rohan.

Thus we may deduce that the force in Minas Morgul was of lesser strength, and would be within the ability of Gondor and allies to defeat, but for one thing. Or should I say Nine things - the Nazgul. The impact that the Nazgul have on a battle is readily attested to. Let us consider the words of Boromir at the Council of Elrond:
'But this very year, in the days of June, sudden war came upon us out of Mordor, and we were swept away. We were outnumbered, for Mordor has allied itself with the Easterlings and the cruel Haradrim; but it was not by numbers that we were defeated. A power was there that we have not felt before.

'Some said that it could be seen, like a great black horseman, a dark shadow under the moon. Wherever he came a madness filled our foes, but a fear fell on our boldest, so that horse and man gave way and fled.' There are others... but I think the point is made. The thing that makes Minas Morgul unassailable by Gondor is not its military hosts, its the Nazgul.

This is where the White Council would have been of immense value. Who might they have sent? Gandalf:
They [the Nazgul] drew away from me, for they felt the coming of my anger and they dared not face it while the Sun was in the sky. Saruman:
Saruman the White is the greatest of my Order Any number of elf-lords,
'And here in Rivendell there live still some of his chief foes: the Elven-wise, lords of the Eldar from beyond the furthest seas. They do not fear the Ringwraiths, for those who have dwelt in the Blessed Realm live at once in both worlds, and against both the Seen and the Unseen they have great power.' That most famously includes Glorfindel, slayer of balrogs. Indeed, was it not the force led by Cirdan, another Elf-lord (who had not been to the Blessed Realm) who swept away the hosts of Angmar, led by the Witch-King, and a potent alliance of Earnur and Glorfindel that finally crushed them?

So then we can conclude that enormous 'spiritual' power of the White Council would have driven off the Nazgul, and the military power of Gondor and Rohan would have defeated the dismayed, leaderless and over-matched army of Minas Morgul.

That would have been so much more effective than the attack on Dol Guldur, that achieved precisely nothing.

[Snaga]

Time appears to be more or less up for this debate. Time I think to summarise and reflect a little.

At the start of this debate, I was somewhat concerned. Maedhros was confident, the answer was “obvious”, the White Council were right. He had home-field advantage, and had pressed it to its maximum extent. How could I possibly argue against a successful attack by the White Council?

My initial view was that if I couldn’t deny that this was a good thing to do, I needed to come up with something better. Hence the alternative plan, to aid Gondor in an attack on Minas Morgul, home of the Nazgul. What started as a wild idea, turns out to be thoroughly sound. And the “obvious” has fallen apart.

Lets consider the many reasons that Maedhros has put up, from a rock solid position of “Sauron would have definitely won without this attack” which has decayed into “I can see why Saruman thought this was a good idea”.

The initial view was that without the attack on Dol Guldur, the Quest for Erebor would not have succeeded, and thus Sauron could use Smaug to attack Rivendell and Lorien. And thus Frodo, denied refuge en route to Mordor would have failed to destroy the Ring.

This fell apart.

Sauron would probably not have heard about the dwarves journey eastwards, and even if it had, Dol Guldur could not have prevented the destruction of the Smaug, even Sauron had heard, which was doubtful. No Smaug = no problem, because Dol Guldur was not a strong military base.

If it had been a strong base, the White Council would not have been able to attack. And we have the words of Haldir, that it was, at the time of Lord of the Rings, seven times its previous strength. But the White Council could overcome Dol Guldur: proving its inability to pose a threat to the North.

The argument made to support this crumbling edifice is “Gandalf believes it so”. The same Gandalf, who is glad not to be “mistaken at all points.” He misses many things: Saruman’s treason, the nature of Ring, and here he misses Sauron’s real intent.

It was in fact, a place from where Sauron was secretly searching for the Ring. He didn’t know this: because Saruman didn’t tell him.

So the Council: the Istari and the chief Eldar make a decision based on geo-political delusion and imperfect knowledge. They believe there is a threat to the North, without evidence, and they don’t know about the search for the Ring. But Elrond “foresaw” that the attack was too late. Still they press ahead on an attack “long forseen” by the Enemy, and Sauron feigns to fly, only to return to Mordor as planned. For this was always his real power base, and Gondor was always his chief enemy, especially after the demise of Arnor.

Other bizarre suggestions, such as that it might be possible to destroy Sauron in the attack, or that Sauron wanted the West to attack Mordor and was playing an elaborate double-bluff, can be safely dispensed with.

Thus when you come down to it, there is this for the Scholars to cling to. Saruman wanted the attack to disrupt Sauron’s search for the Ring. It seemed like a good idea to him, even though we know that Gollum had removed the ring from the Gladden Fields centuries earlier.

So the judges must ask themselves this. Is the White Council’s decision wrong because they mistakenly thought that there was a military threat from Dol Guldur, whereas there was none? Or, can it be a correct decision, because Saruman secretly manipulated them into disrupting Sauron’s search, which could never have been successful?

Who can deny the logic of Saruman’s desire to disrupt that search? But he had no foresight in this matter. Gandalf had foresight in the value of hobbits, and the part they had to play in the war against Sauron. Elrond had foresight, in realising the attack on Dol Guldur was too late. But Saruman had departed from the pure motives of his mission, and wanted the Ring for himself. So with dimmed wisdom, but subtle thinking, his “hope cheated him” – the Ring would always elude him. Ironically, his lie to the White Council, lulling them into believing that the Ring had rolled down the Anduin and into the sea had just a glimmer of insight: the realisation that the ring was not there to found. But Saruman’s “crooked mind” led to a wrong decision: foresight failed, because his own lust led him astray. So even if his schemes were understandable they were wrong. Understandable is not what the question says.

So we are left with a futile attack, justified by deceits and misjudgement, motivated by ring-lust, that was too late in coming, served only to cover Sauron’s move back to Mordor, and disrupted his fruitless search.

Given the sheer pointlessness of this attack, perhaps it is more “obvious” that no alternative plan is needed. The assault on Minas Morgul idea arose only as an alternative, because I wrongly assumed the attack on Dol Guldur was a good idea. Its not.

Fortunately, the idea holds up well.

Minas Morgul was not too strong militarily to attack: although a source of real power, it was only too strong because of the presence of the Nazgul. The White Council had the power to drive them off. Gondor and Rohan had the power to win militarily. The decline of Gondor could have been reversed but it was not.

The Eldar were long estranged from men, especially in the South. The Istari, lead astray by Saruman, never acted as one against Sauron. It could, and should, have happened long before the War of the Ring. It was the White Council’s duty to ensure that it did, but it failed in its task. Instead in its one single moment of action, it misfired, attacking too late for no good reason, when the real fight lay elsewhere.

The Council's decision was wrong.

[Maedhros]

It is a very pretty scenario that snaga1 has pointed out, unfortunately it has several faults:

Originally posted by snaga1
So a BIGGER threat was in the south, but Gondor was able to master it, without only the help from Rohan.
A BIGGER threat as you say means a greater force then. Meaning that an attack on Dol Guldur, where the White Council thought that Sauron was would be a more easier target then. But unfortunately for you, in 2941 TA Sauron had already fled Dol Guldur and would be there in Mordor to orchestrate against this ficticious attack.

Originally posted by snaga1
Thus we may deduce that the force in Minas Morgul was of lesser strength, and would be within the ability of Gondor and allies to defeat, but for one thing. Or should I say Nine things - the Nazgul. The impact that the Nazgul have on a battle is readily attested to. Let us consider the words of Boromir at the Council of Elrond:
The Nazgûl and Sauron too, for he was going to Mordor in 2941 TA before the attack of the White Council.
Now we come to the Mysterious forces of the White Council:
1. Gandalf: Using selective quoting snaga1 posted:

They [the Nazgul] drew away from me, for they felt the coming of my anger and they dared not face it while the Sun was in the sky.
but if we look at what is next we have:

'I galloped to Weathertop like a gale, and I reached it before sundown on my second day from Bree-and they were there before me. They drew away from me, for they felt the coming of my anger and they dared not face it while the Sun was in the sky. But they closed round at night, and I was besieged on the hill-top, in the old ring of Amon Sûl. I was hard put to it indeed: such light and flame cannot have been seen on Weathertop since the war-beacons of old.
`At sunrise I escaped and fled towards the north. I could not hope to do more
He escaped and fled towards the north. Hehe.
Saruman:

Saruman the White is the greatest of my Order
Would you really want Saruman there in Gondor? He who was working for himself only. He who would call the shots in there?
From Morgoth's Ring: Myths Transformed

Sauron had, in fact, been very like Saruman, and so still understood him quickly and could guess what he would be likely to think and do, even without the aid of palantiri or of spies; whereas Gandalf eluded and puzzled him.
It actually works in Sauron's favor.
In c. 3000 TA, Saruman becomes ensnared by Sauron, can you think what terrible consequences it would have if Saruman would be ensnared earlier and with great power in Gondor. Horrible disaster.

Originally posted by snaga1
That most famously includes Glorfindel, slayer of balrogs. Indeed, was it not the force led by Cirdan, another Elf-lord (who had not been to the Blessed Realm) who swept away the hosts of Angmar, led by the Witch-King, and a potent alliance of Earnur and Glorfindel that finally crushed them?
You mean Glorfindel slayer of a balrog, don't you. But how do you know that Glorfindel was even in the White Council? How do you know that he was part of it's forces? Can you give us a quote to support that statement?
Would Círdan go to such a battle? Is there any mention that he was in those meetings in the White Council? Do we have proof of the participants of such Councils?

Originally posted by snaga1
So then we can conclude that enormous 'spiritual' power of the White Council would have driven off the Nazgul, and the military power of Gondor and Rohan would have defeated the dismayed, leaderless and over-matched army of Minas Morgul.
It is interesting but, the White Council thought that Sauron was in Dol Guldur in 2941 TA. How would the armies of darkness be leaderless with Sauron there? What would happen if Saruman became a traitor faster than he actually did, he was there for his own gain? Disaster.

Originally posted by snaga1
That would have been so much more effective than the attack on Dol Guldur, that achieved precisely nothing.
With Sauron in Mordor, the forces of darkness would have been with appropiate leadership, and with Saruman in Gondor, working for himself, he could have done horrible harms to Gondor and bring terrible consequences to it and maybe Gondor itself would have fallen. Now that would be disastrous.

[Nóm]

Time is up. The debate is over.

I love stating the obvious ;).