The FOTR is a financial flop?

[Gloer]

And that means the rest of the LOTR might end up in the hands of Hollywood butchers...
Not just minor changes.

But then that means even less money since even most of us will skip it and the rest don't catch on it without FOTR.

My hopes of improved editing and some narrative in the dvd version are dimmer and dimmer.

Hollywood does not understand myths. They are not fast sinking stuff. They sink slowly and deeply. Those films probably sell even 10 years from now as a whole. Whatever we think of the story telling, the visualisation of Middle Earth is very impressive and the interpretation highlights many aspects of the books that otherwise might go unnoticed. In time these movies will find their place in Tolkien-world. If Hollywood deems the films as a whole as doomed, they are shortsighted and probably playing for power in New Line Studios. And that sounds bad. For us.

It is not the Tolkien fans who are not going to the movies to see it. It is the masses who find Tolkien boring.

[Tar-Palantir]

A financial flop? I saw on one of the networks that it's predicted to gross between $70 and $80 million in it's first five days, which would put it up there with JP III.

If it took $300 million to make all three films, I'd say they have a pretty good start.

[Greymantle]

Unfortunately, this project can't go the way of the Bakshi, as they've already pretty much filmed all three. The only ill I wish Peter Jackson personally is that these films do flop financially...

[ReadWryt]

Greymantle,

Not true. Jackson doesn't have final controll over the project. New Line makes the final cut on the theatrical release and ultimately has the rights, not P.J. . Truth to be told, if this doesn't get the numbers then it could put New Line in serious fiscal trouble causing Warner Brothers to bail them out by absorbing them completely, then AOL/Time Warner will own the rights and the footage to do with as they please...

[aragil]

I haven't seen anything to suggest that these movies are going to do poorly. FOTR had a very high per-screen average over it's three day opening. While it didn't break any major records, neither did Titanic (shudder), another 3-hour movie. The studio has almost made back it's investment for FOTR in the first weekend, and I'm sure that it will make back the full $300 million long before FOTR is out of the theaters. Like it or not, we're going to be able to see all 3 movies as PJ intends, if not as Tolkien might have intended.
How can you want these to flop- if they break all the top-grossing records it will be a testament to Tolkien and his Middle-Earth.

[Foe-Hammer]

As we all know, Gollum was not above cutting off his nose to spite his face. The Precious had him under it's spell.
Some in the npw's guild have the same problem....

[proudfoot]

Yes. Does anyone really want to see the next two films cut to 90 minutes each of special effects? Coz thats what'll probably happen if the "Fellowship" flops.

[Rhumatad]

i feel that FOTR will not boom then rapidly fade out like harry potter (euch) but instead i think mosr ane more people will see it as the weeks go by until after a few months, people are dying to see it again and it has become a major success.
very much like gladiator, i had heard nothing of the film until a friend told me how good it was. i went to see it, then went again, and by that time people were realising that it was the best film to come out in a while and crowds flocked to the cinemas.
i think it may be the same with FOTR, that will pave the way for TT and ROTK to open with a bang.

[markrob]

Financial flop my ass: check out

http://www.usatoday.com/life/enter/movies/2001-12-24-box-office.htm

I believe that may quash a few people's hopes that this movie will fail. It pretty much states that it will make close to the total cost with just one movie. Sorry to be the "ringbearer" of bad news, oh I couldnt resist that.. Later :cool:

[Gloer]

"The Eagles are coming!"

It is always better to have a personification of evil that is all powerful and therefore responsible: Peter Jackson.
Than to have a faceless machine with no feelings nor passion, mere ignorance, to just twists the good story into a devillish and shallw orc. A story that flatly hails high moral while embracing decay.

It is generally good that PJ can finnish his job and therefore stands responsible for it. I wait patiently for the dvd release and the directors cut, then I shall judge his work finished.

I would like to quote Gimli and Legolas when they discuss the stonework of Minas Tirith. Gimli criticisess that the beginning is good, excellent but then late r it is not as good. He generalises that this is always the same with man, there is a promise of greatness at start but it never reaches it's full shine.
Then Legolas says that yet their achievements outlast those of elves and dwarves.

So it is with PJ too. A great promise, a grand start - but then not quite there even very badly done work here and there. And still with time also his work shall outlast the critics.

PS. I think the the nature of evil in the book and the movie should be compared.

[Tar-Ancalime]

Fotr is not a flop, it's done much better than even that harry movie!

[Foe-Hammer]

Please start a thread comparing the evil in the book vs the movie. Sounds interesting....

[chrome_rocknave]

It seems to me that the movie is doing really well. I think it will make well over the cost of making it. Does anyone know how long FOTR will be playing in theaters?

[Arwen]

LOTR a flop?........LOL :rolls around floor laughing:.....i cant believe you said that, at least back up your info if your gonna say that.LOTR is one of the biggest money making movies of this year and it hasnt even been out for a month yet......every cinema is jam packed full of people that cheer after the movie finishes, it has been getting AMAZING reviews........so explain to me how this is a flop of a film?

[Earnil]

Well it is now official that FOTR is a big success.
It has already made back the amount of money it cost to make the whole trilogy.

Yep! Worldwide it has made over NZ$600 million, and that is an approx estimate on what the whole trilogy cost. And it is predicted that FOTR will make somewhere in the vicinity of US$500 million.

This link shows the Domestic weekly breakdown of the FOTR box office.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/data/lordoftherings/

[ReadWryt]

Where are you getting this $500M figure out of the page you posted a link to? It says $174M... even if it makes that much in the rest of the year you are looking at $348M gross, which does not take into account that it was only the first week that New Line was making 80% of the gross themselves, with 20% of that going to the theaters. The numbers are different in the second week...80% of the gross goes to the Theater Owners, which means that in the first week New Line had a net gross of $86,397,600...since then their take has been $11,186,800 meaning a total of $97,584,400 so far for a movie that cost over a hundred million to make and god knows how much to promote.

Still, the $130 million figure was vastly understated -- the three scripts hadn't been written at the time, so New Line had no way of accurately calculating how much the films would cost. After the scripts were finished and New Line made substantial upgrades to Jackson's effects infrastructure, the budget increased to somewhere between $180 and $210 million when filming began in October 1999. And by the time the nearly 15 months of principal photography ended last December, followed by a long post-production schedule, the final cost ballooned to around $300 million. http://www.salon.com/ent/movies/feature/2001/11/15/lotr/index_np.html

Within three years the estimated budget grew by $170 Million! This thing isn't out of the red yet, and it's certainly not out of trouble, They need to clear an awfull lot in Pay per view and DVD sales, and they better hope they can squeeze Showtime and Starz for a hefty amount of green if they are going to turn a profit off of this.

[Earnil]

I guess I meant to say $500 million worldwide in US currency. Not just the domestic gross of FOTR in America. And anyway like I said it has already made back the amount it cost to ake all three LOTR movies.

Also, adding together the estimated worldwide gross soo far with the US domestic gross makes US$330,119,499 from the website I provided a link to. And using the exchange rate between NZ and US that comes out as NZ$793,366,288.36. Which is over a NZ$100 million more than the whole trilogy cost to make.

[ReadWryt]

$174 Million Domestic, $330 Million world wide. I don't know where you are pulling these rediculously huge numbers out from, the movie hasn't even grossed more then Planet of the Apesl or Jurasic Park III yet...let alone Pearl Harbor, The Mummy Returns, Rush Hour 2, Monsters Inc, Shrek or Harry Potter...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/2001/

...see, where, on the link you provided, it said at the bottom of January 1rst "Gross-to-date", that means the total domestic gross take up to that day...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/data/lordoftherings/

[Arwen]

Im sorry, but anyone who thought LOTR was gonna be a flop, is not human...no matter how "not like the book" it would have been, this movie would have done massivly well either way.

[Earnil]

All right then. Forget about the $500 million remark. Infact it will probably actually make somewhere in between US$300 million and US$400 million worldwide.

But the total it has made world-wide, US domestic (US$174,119,499) plus the Overseas-Gross (US$156 million) equals roughly US$330 million.

And now the amount NZ$793,366,288 is from converting the amount made world-wide so far (US$330 million) using the exchange rate into the equivalent in New Zealand currency. And $640 million is roughly what all three movies cost in New Zealand currency. And by doing this I am just showing how much more it has made than what all 3 cost to make together.

And here is some news that not many people know.
If all 3 movies together make 2 1/2 times of what they cost, then the Tolkien Estate recieve royalties from the films. Hows that so they do get some money from it afterall.

[ReadWryt]

While I applaud your consession, I question your point. If it costs me $30 to make a widget, and I advertise and promote these widgets, and I make 10 of them and then sell them for $300, what does that mean? If in the end they have spent $300 Million producing three films, and they make $600 million at the box office, trust me, they have barely made a penny.

Look, I've allways had great distain for these rediculous and simplistic Box Office Figures. They mean little or nothing in reality because they are a gross figure and don't take into account the cost of Replication of the Prints, Promotion, The Theater Owner's take, Distribution and Administrative costs for overseeing all of the above. The foolhardy figures thrown about concerning the Production Cost and Box Office take for "Pearl Harbor" is a good example. That film has made very little money in reality. The rule of thumb in the business is to gross at least three times the cost of production and Disney has not yet done that. They are white knuckling it about Pay per view and the Subscription Movie licensing at this point.

Also, a heads up...The Tolkien Estate makes zip, nothing, zilch, nada off of the movie. When the Rights were sold originally to Disney in the 50's it was for a one time fee of around the then astronomical fee of $50,000 American Dollars. The rights were purchased from them by the Saul Zaentz Company in 1976, three years after the professor died. He licensed the rights to Ralph Bakshi and then swore never to let anyone try to make a movie of them again until Jackson and company convinced him to license the rights to Mirimax, an irony because they are owned by Disney themselves. Mirimax wanted to reduce the project from a $70 million two film deal to a $40 million one movie project and Jackson shopped it to New Line, who after paying back the $12 million to Mirimax cut what was then a $179 Million three film epic. Since 1999 the production budget expanded to over $300 Million and this is where we are today...

I never thought that this project would "Flop". AOL/Time Warner would never let that happen...what I have feared is that, were this film not to make enough, Peter Jackson might be pushed aside after Warner Bros. absorbed the rest of New Line and THEY finished making the movies in an even more "Marketable" manner. This is why I am pulling for the profit margin on this movie, If I have to put up with a movie I only half way like, I would be loath to see the next two made "By Committee"...

[Earnil]

I think I might be seeing what you are getting at.
You are saying in the first paragraph is that even though it has made alot of money that doesn't matter because it all comes down to splitting the money into the fractions that each of the companies involved each recieves from the profits.

For example, the cinemas earnings come from the box office takings, then others recieveing takings from the box office, like the Tolkien Estate, and PJ and his side of the production of the films, then finally the production company itself, which doesn't necessarily recieve what everyone thinks it recieves, instead it recieves less than some people expected from the box office takings.


Is that basically what you mean? :confused:


And here is the truth on the royalties the Tolkien Estate recieves (if the LOTR trilogy makes back 2 1/2 times what it cost).
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/2001/12/12/FFXVJ91K2VC.html

[ReadWryt]

Wow! I wonder how accurate that is because I've been hearing and reading the version that I presented for over a decade. I first heard it back in the days when Bakshi was making his version. Hermmmm, I'll have to look into that. Good research though.

As for my point in the above quote, you nailed it. See, the cost of making a product, like my imaginary Widget, is only a small portion of the equation, and when Hollywood starts making a big deal about Gross numbers at the Box Office it usually means that they are hoping to hype it up for the DVD, VHS and Pay Per View market. The studios make the bulk of their bankroll, where theatrical screening is concerned, off of the first week or two. They specifically contract, through their Distributor (Which in this case is Warner Bros., the majority owner of New Line) to take what averages out to 80% of the Box Office the first week or so. After that the Theater Owner gets the bulk of the "Door", and so when you hear that a movie made $100 Million the first week and $100 Million the second week, they actually have grossed at that point about $100 Million...*Grimace* But the Media would have you believe that the movie is making TONS of money...

The other thing that they never take into account, and this REALLY became apparent with the Media comparing Phantom Menace and the original Star Wars, is that it costs a hell of a lot more to get into the door of a theater these days then it did two years ago, so a HUGE box office is partially because each viewer is paying 2 dollars more per person to see it. Star Wars was a bigger success because it made more people see it more times then Phantom Menace, but Phantom Menace made more in it's first screening then Star Wars did in dollars...It's all Smoke, Mirrors and Hype.

[Earnil]

That actually strikes me as very interesting.
Mostly because of what that means for the movie Titanic. We all hear that it made something like $1.8 billion at the box office world wide. Because it was co-produced by Fox and Paramount, and apparently Fox has overseas rights to the over-seas box-office.

So I'm not surprised with the LOTR trilogy if New Line makes just as much as Fox and Paramount did for Titanic. Even though Titanic made hell of alot more than what the Trilogy will probably makes.

[dtf1]

It may not make any sense to you but the movie industry does go by Box Office. It is a real thing that is applied to every movie that comes out in U.S.A. So you can't say well gee the box office is 174 million but that really only means it made 17 million...that is like saying Jackson spent 90 million on the first movie but he only spent 9 million on the movie. Your fuzzy logic doesnt work. Itll edge out Planet of the apes soon enough and then creep upwards and onwards forever more now. Why not? It's a worthy movie.

[Merry]

Originally posted by markrob
Financial flop my ass: check out

http://www.usatoday.com/life/enter/movies/2001-12-24-box-office.htm

I believe that may quash a few people's hopes that this movie will fail. It pretty much states that it will make close to the total cost with just one movie. Sorry to be the "ringbearer" of bad news, oh I couldnt resist that.. Later :cool:

I agree! After two weeks of the film being open in Cambridge, you still need to reserve tickets 3 days in advance to see the film. Every showing is maxed out and it is hard to see! I hope that none of the 3 films flop.

[ReadWryt]

dtf1,

I'm not sure what you mean by "fuzzy logic" or that the Movie Industry "uses" box office figures...The Box Office numbers are a rough ballpark figure, the Industry uses those numbers only as a means of generating buzz because they know that they are not indicative at first blush of the success of a film, at least not this soon after it has been released. The only time that the Box Office figures really come into play is when the distributors and studios change their strategy in the Post Opening Promotions, something that was rare in the past, but with companies like Disney tacking on phony out-takes and changing them out when the numbers start to drop off, it's probably going to happen more and more. The truth is that the Box Office Figure doesn't even give you a head count! You have NO idea from such a rudimentary and course accounting of income as to how many PEOPLE have seen it, and those kind of numbers interest the Studios more early on then how much money the film has collectively collected at the door. I'm not saying they are not interested in how much money has been snatched up at all, just that they know how to factor in the fact that a good percentage of what they are looking at in the Box Office numbers is actually making it into their pockets, and the media seems to present these figures as pure income...

Fuzzy Logic would be to presume, three weeks after the release of ANY film, that if it has made twice the Production Cost at the Box Office that the movie is payed for, when the truth is that from the second or third week onward only about a third of the money made after the first couple of weeks is going to the Studio.

[Earnil]

Well FOTR has now passed POTA in domestic gross.
Domestic Gross - $189,475,000

And it has already passed Jurassic Park 3. The next movie it will pass wil be Pearl Harbour at $198,542,554.

[ReadWryt]

They will probably have made their investment back with the next one, which would put RotK in the total black...all profit, no net (Pun intended)! But next year is going to be a motion picture ball buster. It's a good thing the economy has finally hit bottom now because there are going to be a lot of big draw films released next year...Maybe more then this year, although has anyone really taken an accounting of all the really REALLY good movies that came out this year? It's pretty astounding!

[fantasydude]

its important to remember to take any figures of money with a grain of salt. they say for example the titanic was the highest grossing picture of all time, and numerically speaking it was, but by the laws of inflation and economics its not really so at all, the biggest films of all time were in reality gone with the wind and the wizard of oz, when a movie cost like a quarter or something. so numbers are meaningless until you balance cost versus real value, versus inflation, etc etc by the way i hated economics class, but hey, the theatres are packed and the reviews are good, and with only 3 showings a day, we can only wait and see but nowadays in hollywood with the foreign markets even the worst movies (ex. waterworld) make money eventually, so worry not.

[Foe-Hammer]

The point is that the LOTR is a huge success. And that galls the heck out of those who whine about the film not following the book.

[fantasydude]

purist or not im just happy they made a decent fantasy movie (not like the d and d movie thank god) there hasnt been a good fantasy flick since excalibur, which if you havent seen it it rocks.
in these times of trouble, we want to go to the movies to escape not see other people just like us with the same mundane problems, yawn.

[Todd1700]

Anyone who says differently is poking holes in their own credibility. For 50 years we have been using box office gross to judge how well a film is doing but now all of a sudden we have to factor in percentage of gross, inflation rates, distribution of funds, etc, etc, to find out how FOTR is doing! Please the movie has been far and away the number one movie at the box office for three weeks now. It pulled in another 23 million this past weekend to top the 200 million mark. And keep this in mind. It is a three hour movie. Because of its length it gets about half the showings per day that a 2 hour movie gets. My local theater complex shows it at 12, 4 and 8 only. It looks as if this first film will actually get New Line to the break even point already and with two more already in the can I promise you this will not be remembered as a finacial flop. In fact it is far from it.
You purists need to hit the bleed valve on your personal venom tanks and just admit you are wrong on this count. Like the movie or hate it, thats your business, but a flop at the box office it is not.

[Earnil]

Well considering it has reached $205.5 million over the last weekend it is almost New Lines biggest movie of all time.
Austin Powers 2 did $206 million, and Rush Hour 2, New Lines biggest movie of 2001 soo far has taken in $226 million.
And Rush Hour 2 is NL biggest to date.

But there is no doubt that FOTR will be bigger, I am sure FOTR will pass RH2, infact some experts are quoting FOTR as making the $300 million mark in US domestic gross.

[Bucky]

The Wizard of Oz was actually not that big of a hit.
I read somewhere it took 20 years to break even.

It became a classic when they started showing it every year on TV.

[Greenwood]

I want to thank ReadWryt for posting the link (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/2001/ ) that shows movie grosses. It has been fun watching FOTR climb the charts. It is now in the number five spot (for 2001 releases) and has an estimated world wide gross of $441,000,000, in less than three weeks of release. Pardon me if I doubt that New Line's accountants are overly worried about making back their costs on this project.

[Greenwood]

As of today the movie's estimated world wide gross is $515,000,000; placing it in the 19th spot of all time top grossing films. And this before it reaches the one month anniversary of its release. A financial flop it ain't!

[Harad]

2/4/02

With $267.1 million total so far domestically,
"LOTR:FOTR" will pass "Shrek" this week to become the second highest grossing film released in 2001. "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" was No 1. at $312.9 and counting.

[Greenwood]

LOTR/FOTR also has an estimated worldwide gross at this time of over $666 million. In another week or so it should break into the top ten list of worldwide gross (without accounting for inflation of course). All this before hitting the two month anniversary of its release.

[Thorin]

Maybe ReadWryt can somehow estimate how much NLC has personally made for all this, seeing as a lot of it goes to the movie theatres...666 million! Even if NLC gets half, I think they've made back all there investment in this flick, and that is only the first movie...The other two will be strictly profit...

I still didn't like it....:D.

Though the DVD with all the edited parts thrown in might sooth my disdain a bit...If only they could edit out Arwen....

[aragil]

Originally posted by Thorin
Though the DVD with all the edited parts thrown in might sooth my disdain a bit...If only they could edit out Arwen....

Sort of like Star Wars Special Edition in reverse: Now with additional footage removed!

[LOTRs GurL]

how could a movie that hasnt even been 100% released world wide, but has made more than 500 million world wide were it HAS already been released... be a flop?

[Flame of Utumno]

It broke almost every record in its first week of screening in Australia, so its hardly a flop over here.

[ReadWryt]

I'm not sure about what kind of distribution deal Warner cuts with the overseas markets, but I've seen estimates that NLC has so far made a bit over $310 million off the box office on this film to date world wide. This excludes the money they make off the WETA collectables, the Houghton Mifflin movie related book sales, the Marvel Comics action figures and we still have a long time till the money from the sales of Frodo and Lurtz Halloween Costumes later this year.

I'm not sure how the $60 million dollar deal for the Broadcast Rights factors in that they just made with AOL/Time Warner/Turner, but if each film draws that kind of bank in the deal then the total will have been $180 million, which covers more then half the initial production cost. I would say it's safe to say that they are well out of the water on this film and that the cost of the promotion of the next two is more then covered. 80% or more of the box office alone of the next two will be profit, free and clear most likely.

[Thrakerzog]

Drooool Lurtz haloween costums... MMmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Snaga]

This update from Ananova.com

The Lord Of The Rings has entered the top 10 biggest money-making films of all time.

The Fellowship Of The Ring is now at number eight on the list with $749.6 million.

However, it may drop back down with the re-release of ET later this month.

[Greenwood]

Have no fear, it has just opened in Japan where they are expecting it to make a $100 million plus; maybe $150 million.

[Greenwood]

Just to update this, the movie has now passed the $800 million mark worldwide. It does not look like it will catch Harry Potter, but it is still grossing over $3 milliom a week in the US, which is pretty remarkable for a film that has been out for over three and a half months. At this point in its run old Harry P. was grossing less than $0.5 million a week. The TTT trailer is released tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if that causes a box-office bump, though it already seems to have had a slight bump from its four Oscar awards.