Saruman's Military Intelligence

[Harad]

Consider the accomplishments and failures of Saruman. Consider his military intelligence (MI), and no, that is not an oxymoron. Also consider things attributed to him that changed the course of the LOTR.

1. Saruman learned of the finding of the Ring when Gandalf told him it was in the Shire in July 3018. The subsequent events in the story up until the Fellowship enters Moria, ASSUME that Saruman knew everything that the Council of Elrond had decided including the existence of the Fellowship, the goal of the Fellowship, and the approximate location of the Fellowship. Where is there any evidence in LOTR that these assumptions were correct?

2. With the assumptions in 1, the next assumption is that Saruman used his military forces, in the interval between July-December 3018 to deploy a huge force of Orcs to patrol the Gap of Rohan against...what?

3. By February 3019 Saruman is sending Orcs up and down Rohan. Eomer is killing the Orcs. But why is Saruman doing this? So a party of his Orcs (Uruk-hai...excuse me) can come upon the Fellowship at Parth Galen, the ONLY logical place for them to be, considering Saruman's MI. Or if that is not the only logical place, then consider the HUGE force of Uruks needed to cover all the ground from the Gap of Rohan thru Rohan and all the way to Anduin. Merry and Pippen are taken on February 26.

4. On March 3 of 3019 Saruman launches a full scale attack on Rohan at Helm's Deep. Unless its a leap year that is 5 DAYS! after his far flung forces chanced upon the Fellowship at Parth Galen.

5. Finally the Master Tactician and Strategist who has forced the Fellowship thru Moria with his brilliant blockade of the Gap, and picked up 2 hobbits (the wrong ones of course) from hundreds of miles away in the other direction, and launched a nearly successful full-scale attack on a neighboring country, is destroyed because he forgot about the Ents in his backyard.

How did Saruman know what he did and when did he know it? How was Saruman the Off-White so wise, lucky, dumb, and unlucky, all in the same year?

[lilhobo]

should nt this thread be labelled "Harad's military Genius"???

but lemme read it lol

hoom hoom, it did not have anything like

if a implies b, and -a implies not -b
and 1 + 1 = windows = bill gates
nike = sweat shop slavery > human rights!!!

hoom hoom

Read the book, Saruman milked ole Treebeard for all hes worth and found the ents to be less efficient in matters of warfares. How the heck can Sasruman know where JRR got the Hourns from??? some old treespirits with an axe to grind, so to speack

[Eonwe]

I wasn't as impressed with it. I mean what about a sneak attack on Rohan while the Fellowship hammed it up in Rivendell? Even a smaller force than what he had at Helm's Deep would have been able to reak havoc, and may have changed the plans of Gandalf substantially. Instead he focuses so intently on the Ring he overextends.

Of course Arwen would have kicked his ass anyway, so its all moot.

[Lantarion]

LOL Squeeky. :)
Pretty good q's, Harad, and I haven't yet found the answers to them (damn CGtME); but on a nitpicking note, Saruman heard of the One Ring well before 3018. He settled in Isengard in 2759, and only a decade or so later it was found out that he coveted the Ring, and wanted to get his hands on it.

[Elanor2]

Some answers, perhaps...

Saruman was not working alone in trying to find the ring. Via the palantir, he was getting instructions from Sauron as well.

Sauron knew that the ring was in Rivendel (the Nazgul followed it there), so he might have instructed Saruman to keep some pressure on the Gap of Rohan to pick up the ring if they tried to move it south. Remember that Sauron had every reason to believe that they were going to use the ring against him, so moving the ring to Minas Thirit would have been the best action if you wanted to use the ring as an attack weapon.

Saruman had a lot of orcs, as the battles of Helm's Deep prove. He was preparing the attack on Rohan even before the fellowship left Rivendel. The search for the ring and the attack on Rohan should be considered separately.

After Moria, the remaining of the Fellowship stayed one month in Lorien. During this time, preparations for a relatively small intercepting force south of Lorien can be carried out. In fact, they intercepted the fellowship quite far south from Lorien, which proves that it was done in a bit of a hurry and they had not progressed too much north yet.

The initiative for the interception of the Fellowship south of Lorien was not Saruman's, but Sauron's. Sauron (and perhaps Saruman) knew were the ring was because he got news from orcs in Moria (despite the fact that many did not manage to go through Lorien). Sauron wanted the ring and asked saruman to lend a small force for support, that joined Sauron's onw forces where they were (quite south still from Lorien).

Only after they had the hobbits did Saruman show his true colors and his Uruk-kai did not go towards Mordor but towards Orthanc. Sauron's orcs had to follow because they were smaller, cowards and because Legolas shoot the Nazgul and left them without instructions.

Saruman's moves look different if you combine what he did with the intructions from Sauron. His independent military actions were focused on Rohan. The search for the ring was directed by Sauron and Saruman only send a small company out to join Sauron (with added special instructions, of course).

[Harad]

Excellent, Elanor2. I like a lot of what you say.

Saruman connection with Sauron is, of course, behind the scenes and must be inferred from the few things we do know: the palantir and the heterogeneous makeup of the Orc party that captured M&P. But you are absolutely correct that it must be an essential part of Saruman's MI.

Its a little too strong too say that Sauron "directed the search for the Ring" because Saruman was, of course, playing both sides, and had his own independent search underway.

Still--what evidence is there, independent of Gandalf's fear--that Saruman did in fact "put pressure on the Gap"? (Whether Sauron asked him to do so is unknowable?)

Given knowledge that the Ring was beyond Moria...and what was Sauron's communication method with Moria? then Sauron could communicate this to Saruman. Parth Galen might be a logical place to search since it was below the falls, but it still seems a little far-fetched to me that a force of Saruman's would be needed or requested by Sauron to roam so far afield from Orthanc to search for the Ring. How much for example could Sauron have trusted Saruman? In the case of the Gap (if that had really come into play) Saruman would have been the local warlord. In the case of Parth Galen, Saruon would have been as "local" if not more so.

I agree completely with you that Saruman was "preparing the attack on Rohan even before the fellowship left Rivendel." If Saruman sent an equivalent party to the Gap at the behest of Sauron, as he sent to Parth Galen during this period of buildup, I would believe it. But of course it would take a MUCH larger party to close the Gap.

Pontifex,
I didnt mean to imply that Saruman only heard about the Ring from Gandalf. What he learned from Gandalf was its location and further (conclusive?) evidence that it was the OneRing.

[Eonwe]

squeeky -- I will type more, I was busy last night. If only Harad would ask easier questions... Besides that's normally all he types back to me :) I gotta do some research, I never liked Saruman much.

[aragil]

I can think of one reason that Sauron would ask Saruman for help- the Great River. Sauron's forces seemed to have very little access to the Western shores of the great river- the men of Gondor ensured that he could not cross in the South. Grishnakh's crossing seemed to be Nazgul-aided, so maybe crossing a larger force of orcs was difficult. Saruman, on the other hand, had fairly easy access to the West shore via Rohan (thank you Grima). On February 23rd the company was attacked by orcs + Nazgul from the East shore, presumably all Sauron's forces. It is not until the 26th, down at Parth Galen that we learn of forces on the West shore, and these notably include the Uruk-hai of Isengard. Perhaps Sauron had his troops prowling the East-banks, but when he learned with certainty that the Fellowship was on the river he requested help from Saruman's forces, which had easier access to the West shore. Remember, Sauron seems fairly arrogant, and probably thought that there was no way Saruman had enough will-power left to rebel, so asking him for help was just a matter of convenience. He wouldn't have needed trust, he thought he was dominating the little wizard.

ps. Sauron's communication with Moria was via Orc during the month that the Fellowship stayed in Lorien.

pps. A centrally located group of orcs could patrol the gap even if it was no larger than Ugluk's group. On my Map the Gap is no larger than the lake above Rauros, and it is completely bisected by the river Isen. Plop down 100 orcs at the Fords (the easiest crossing point, and centrally located), and then have the Crebain follow the fellowship from Moria to the Gap, place your orcs on the opposite side of the bank from the fellowship (pray that Legolas doesn't have 100 arrows), and you've effectively intercepted the fellowship, with more orcs waiting in nearbye Isengard. Also note that Ugluk's orc band outpaced Aragorn, Gimli, and Legolas, so they could definitely do the same to the Fellowship when it was 4/9 Hobbit, allowing any interception to be that much easier.

[Bombadillodillo]

Hmm. . . . wasn't this the topic on a different thread?

first we have reincarnations of Harad and now reincarnations of threads . . . .



Still--what evidence is there, independent of Gandalf's fear--that Saruman did in fact "put pressure on the Gap"?

none . . . . but Tolkien did not write of the Gap of Rohan because Gandalf chose the Moria route.

However, there was evidence that he was watching the gap: the birds and the palantir. But why was he watching unless he meant to do something about it?

Tolkien did not write of the ambush at the Gap. . . . or did he? He did write of the ambush at the falls. And why did that succeed and fail?

[Harad]

My response to Aragil,

the men of Gondor ensured that he could not cross in the south

Yet crossing the River at Parth Galen, a logical place to cross, below the falls, was no sweat for F&S, who met no help on the West from Gondor, nor opposition on the East from Sauron.

Sauron's communication with Moria was via Orc

I will grant that this is possible, altho it has the Orc take the route that you say Sauron's troops could not take in the other direction.

the Gap is no larger than the lake above Rauros

On my map the Gap is about the size of the range of hills/mountains East of the lake...a considerable piece of real estate. People mistake plains for mathematical planes, and the Gap was more a foothill area than the rolling plains of Rohan proper.

Also I refer to the very helpful dates that Squeek and myself have posted in

http://www.thetolkienforum.com/showthread.php?s=&postid=42742#post42742

Gandalf himself crossed the Isen without any trouble only 3 months before the Fellowship set out from Rivendell, and 2 1/2 months after he was imprisoned in Orthanc. Why then conclude that the Gap was impregnable?

[Harad]

Response to Bomb,
I guess there is no end of attacking my posts? I am allowed to say that your posts are worthless and inane. Both.

none . . . . but Tolkien did not write of the Gap of Rohan because Gandalf chose the Moria route.

A novel idea. Thank you. Gandalf the character made a choice that JRRT the author could not gainsay. Love it.

However, there was evidence that he was watching the gap: the birds and the palantir.

In what way is that evidence. Saruman was searching for intelligence in Hollin with the crebain. He did not get it. What does this have to do with the Gap? What does the Palantir have to do with the Gap?

You're posts will have to do a LOT better than this.

[Snaga]

1. Saruman learned of the finding of the Ring when Gandalf told him it was in the Shire in July 3018. The subsequent events in the story up until the Fellowship enters Moria, ASSUME that Saruman knew everything that the Council of Elrond had decided including the existence of the Fellowship, the goal of the Fellowship, and the approximate location of the Fellowship. Where is there any evidence in LOTR that these assumptions were correct?
First up Saruman deduced it from the Nazgul who he had heard were asking for the Shire. Gandalf refused to tell him anything. Second point is that Saruman spies were in Bree (the Southerner) and so he will in all likelihood discovered that 4 hobbits accompanied by a ranger called Strider went east from Bree. Saruman would gather that they had arrived at Elrond. Does he know about the Fellowship? Remember the Crebain from Dunland? Smart money says they are Saruman spies. Were the Fellowship seen - uncertain. But Saruman anticipates a move south from Rivendell and is looking (and Sauron also). Does he understand the intent of the Fellowship? He will have a better handle on what the White Council types are likely to think than Sauron. Sauron doesn't guess, Saruman probably does.

With the assumptions in 1, the next assumption is that Saruman used his military forces, in the interval between July-December 3018 to deploy a huge force of Orcs to patrol the Gap of Rohan against...what?

Assuming that this is referring to the famous Moria Why? thread, and the argument that Saruman could, with lots of orcs, close the Gap against the Fellowship. The point here is if you want the ring, and think it might come through the Gap, and you've got a lot of orcs at your disposal do you try to prevent the Fellowship slipping through or not? Course you do. (Your dates are a bit out since the Fellowship doesn't set out until December).

Still--what evidence is there, independent of Gandalf's fear--that Saruman did in fact "put pressure on the Gap"?
We'll never know because the Fellowship went through Moria!

What happens next? My guess is this - helped by Elanor2's insights. I think that Sauron had got Saruman working on the West of the Misties, and he was taking the East. We know there are Uruk's of Mordor in Moria, and we know from Haldir of Lorien they went to Moria a 'many days' ahead of the Fellowship's exit, and 'in great numbers'. Saruman's been watching Hollin, and the Redhorn Pass with his feathered friends, and communication is via Palantir. The Uruk's cross the Anduin, go over the Wold and pass Lorien to the West. A nazgul/Winged Messenger waits on the East Bank.

But inside Moria, things don't go to plan. For whatever reason the 8 of the 9 Walkers get through and make it to Moria. Orcs are in hot pursuit. They can't penetrate Lorien, but it seems quite plausible that they report back to the Nazgul. Saruman works out that Sauron didn't get the ring. How? Sauron would be having a BIG party if he had it. You'd know!

So Sauron and Saruman have a month to work out what to do next. For Sauron its a question of working out which route to Minas Tirith the ring is going to take. The river is a good bet and he has patrols on the East Bank, with a Nazgul in support (until Legolas downs it). Perhaps he asks Saruman to cover the western shores? Perhaps its Saruman's own idea. How much for example could Sauron have trusted Saruman? Remember when Pippin looks into the Palantir, and Sauron thinks its the ring-bearer. His reaction suggests he thinks that Saruman can be trusted to hand over the hobbit unspoilt. Saruman is very persuasive - its plausible that Sauron would trust him. But Saruman's thinking he's still got an option to get for himself. He sends a big bunch of Uruk Hai.

Looking at the dates, he's got to have sent them out several days before the Battle of the Isen. The search for the ring and the attack on Rohan should be considered separately. says Elanor2. Not really, its all part of the same game that Saruman is playing. The timing makes absolute sense. Prepare for war. But focus on the ring. Is it coming via the Gap? Wait and see. No its not. Its in Lorien. Send a big gang of Uruk-Hai. THEN attack Rohan - that way Rohan horsemen will all be occupied elsewhere perhaps, and your boys can come back via Fangorn.

So far so good. He's not been stupid, and luckily Sauron didn't win in Moria. It does go badly for him when:
(1) His lads grab the wrong hobbits
(2) Wormtongue fails to prevent Eomer chasing them

And he badly miscalculates when it comes to the Ents - stupid maybe? We have hindsight.

[Harad]

To V of K,
Were the Fellowship seen -uncertain

Unlikely. Unless you give the crebain better eyesight than Legolas. From Sauron, Saruman would indeed have learned that the Ring made it to Rivendell. However, he would know nothing of the Fellowship itself, or of its quest, nor would Sauron, until after Moria. (Even then neither Saruon not Saruman would know for certain whether the Ring were with Gandalf. And both might believe that the Ring fell with Gandalf.)

Sauron doesn't guess, Saruman probably does

This is highly speculative. And the whole point of Saruman's betrayal. He wants the Ring for himself. Why would he ascribe different, aberrant in his mind, motives to others? He is more like Sauron than like Gandalf.

Your dates are a bit out

Youre right about that. But in the wrong direction. I am now narrowing down the gap in the Gap. Gandalf his own self crossed the Isen on Sept 24 without opposition, 2 and 1/2 months AFTER he was imprisoned in Orthanc.

Uruk's of Mordor in Moria

This contradicts Aragil's thesis that Sauron's orcs could not cross the Anduin. Shirley, it was easier for Sauron to patrol Parth Galen himself than to hofoot it all the way to Moria.

Perhaps he asks Saruman to cover the western

There is no sense in this, considering your own arguments of Sauron's orcs in Moria and communicating between Moria and Mordor.

Wormtongue fails to prevent Eomer chasing them

In fact the Horseman are continuously fighting the Orcs (and Dunlendings), not only Eomer but Theodred as well, despite the Worm. Getting a party thru Rohan at these times contradicts the idea that this area--and the Gap is more foothills than the rolling plains of Rohan--is so difficult to penetrate.

I do agree with Elanor2 that Saruman had to work on 2 tracks-an intelligence effort to find the Ring and a military effort to fight Rohan. The vast bulk of his forces would go into the latter.

Finally,

We'll never know because the Fellowship went through Moria!

Right on the nose. There is no evidence whatsoever in the Book that the Gap was held, and direct evidence that 3 months prior to the Fellowship leaving Rivendell the Gap was not held.

[aragil]

...and don't call me Shirley!

Gandalf passed though the gap 2.5 months after his initial imprisonment in Orthanc, but before Saruman knew that the ring had left the Suza. At this point Gandalf was a wild-card, so Saruman did not know what he would do. Would he go to Rohan, Lorien, or Gondor and return with an army? If Saruman saw him returning towards the gap, then I'm sure that Saruman was relieved and not so much bent on stopping Gandalf. However, shortly after that Saruman would have heard from Bree that the ring was on the move, and later I'm sure he would have heard from Sauron that the ring was in Rivendell. Finally, the crebain might have given the word to him that the ring was coming south. I know that Legolas initially thinks that the crebain did not see them, but in the Two Towers one of the fellowship (I think Aragorn) admits to the possibility that they were seen and that their position was noted. At any rate, after seeing the crebain Gandalf becomes particularly insistent that they not go through the gap of Rohan. Then the Wargs attack and are driven off, another opportunity for S & S to get info on the whereabouts of the Fellowship. This then would be the time to close the Gap, not earlier. I still maintain that a small force of the Uruk-hai placed at the ford (in UT described as the only position to move large numbers of heavy troops across) would be fast enough to prevent the fellowship from crossing, especially if they had Crebain covering the skies. This goes doubly so for Wolf Riders, which Gandalf had seen in the vicinity, and reported so at the Council of Elrond.

Regarding the crossing of the Anduin, I never said that it would be impossible for large numbers to cross, just difficult. I don't think Sam and Frodo crossed below the falls- I don't remember any mention of the portage, and at least the canoe or Boromir was set in above the falls. Uruks could probably not cross below the falls, nor above the point where the Silverlode flowed into the Anduin- too many elves. So, Sauron being the kind to give orders might have told Saruman to send troops. Otherwise, how do we explain the fact that the company was spotted by orcs and Nazgul on the 23rd, yet had no trouble on the west banks until the 26th?

[JeffF.]

As far as I can determine Saruman had several sources of INTEL. He had spies like the Bill and the southerners at Bree, his patrols of orcs and wolfriders, his birds (identified by Gandalph in FOTR as Saruman's spies prior to the Fellowship entering Moria), and probably most importantly had the Pilantir of Orthanc. According to Unfinished Tales his spies were co-opted by the Lord of the Nazgul. It is possible that his bird (and or beast) spies worked for him at the behest of Radagast who did not know (at least for a time) that Saruman had turned. As described in the last chapter of Unfinished Tales the Pilantir was a great source of information for one of such power as Saruman possessed. Besidis the legitimate users, Elendil's heirs and legally appointed representatives (like the Stewards of Gondor) a wizard like Saruman would be able to use the pilantir to a far greater effect than most beings of ME.

Now that I think of it, these airbornes spies may be another reason why Gandalph chose the underground route or Moria as opposed to uncovered Gap of Rohan. As limited as Orc patrols would have been they would have been greatly enhanced by the assistance of bird spies bringing world to Saruman of movement in Dunland and Enedwaith. Birds of Prey are not the only birdss graced with good eyesight, most birds have comparatively good eyesight.

[Harad]

Aragil,
Sorry, I keep forgetting how sensitive you are about that "Shirley" incident.

I think you have fallen into the "Movie" trap.

I don't think Sam and Frodo crossed below the falls- I don't remember any mention of the portage

It happens to me too. (For example Kuduk pointed out that in the Book, most likely it was NOT the Nazgul that attacked in the Bree Inn room.)

In the Book,
The task proved hard indeed, yet in the end it was done.
This was the portage. And Boromirs boat did not go over the falls, because the falls were behind them.

I suppose I wont ever convince even one person that the Gap was a piece of cake, so the real question reverts to which was reasonably safer, the Gap or Moria. If you also consider that going to Lorien was a necessity, then Moria becomes mandatory.

I still have major problems with Ugluk and his lads making their way thru Rohan to Parth Galen with Eomer on the prowl. It couldnt have been too much before they caught M&P (what provisions did the Orcs bring with them?) so its not as if Rohan was unprepared.

Now consider this chronology:

Feb 23: the boats are attacked at night near Sarn Gebir
Feb 25: First Battle of the Fords of Isen; Theodred son of Theoden is slain.
Feb 26: the breaking of the Fellowship

AMAZEMENT!!!
The battle where Theodred was killed:
It is not yet 5 days since the bitter tidings that Theodred your son was slain upon the West Marches

So says Grima to Theoden on March 2.

So who was holding the Fords on Feb 25? The implication is that it was Theodred, because Rohan was not on the offensive.

I now contend that Rohan held the Fords of the Isen up until Feb 25, well after the Company passed Moria!

[Gothmog]

The Portage you speak of is at Sarn Gebir.
One by one Boromir and Aragorn carried the boats, while the others
toiled and scrambled after them with the baggage. At last all was removed and laid on the portage-way. Then with little further hindrance, save from sprawling briars and many fallen stones, they moved forward all together. Fog still hung in veils upon the crumbling rock-wall, and to their left mist shrouded the River: they could hear it rushing and foaming over the sharp shelves and stony teeth of Sarn Gebir, but they could not see it. Twice they made the journey, before all was brought safe to the southern landing.
There the portage-way, turning back to the water-side, ran gently down to the shallow edge of a little pool. It seemed to have been scooped in the river-side, not by hand, but by the water swirling down from Sarn Gebir against a low pier of rock that jutted out some way into the stream. Beyond it the shore rose sheer into a grey cliff, and there was no further passage for those on foot.

From the Fellowship of the ring: Chapter 9, The Great River.
As for Boromir's body not going over the falls.
'The labour would be hard and long: there are no stones that we could
use nearer than the water-side,' said Gimli.
'Then let us lay him in a boat with his weapons, and the weapons of his vanquished foes,' said Aragorn. 'We will send him to the Falls of Rauros and give him to Anduin. The River of Gondor will take care at least that no evil creature dishonours his bones.'

And further.
Now they laid Boromir in the middle of the boat that was to bear him
away. The grey hood and elven-cloak they folded and placed beneath his head. They combed his long dark hair and arrayed it upon his shoulders. The golden belt of Lórien gleamed about his waist. His helm they set beside him, and across his lap they laid the cloven horn and the hilts and shards of his sword; beneath his feet they put the swords of his enemies. Then fastening the prow to the stern of the other boat, they drew him out into the water. They rowed sadly along the shore, and turning into the swift-running channel they passed the green sward of Parth Galen. The steep sides of Tol Brandir were glowing: it was now mid-afternoon. As they went south the fume of Rauros rose and shimmered before them, a haze of gold. The rush and thunder
of the falls shook the windless air.
Sorrowfully they cast loose the funeral boat: there Boromir lay, restful, peaceful, gliding upon the bosom of the flowing water. The stream took him while they held their own boat back with their paddles. He floated by them, and slowly his boat departed, waning to a dark spot against the golden light; and then suddenly it vanished. Rauros roared on unchanging. The River had taken Boromir son of Denethor, and he was not seen again in Minas Tirith, standing as he used to stand upon the White Tower in the morning. But in Gondor in after-days it long was said that the elven-boat rode the falls and the foaming pool, and bore him down through Osgiliath, and past the many mouths of Anduin, out into the Great Sea at night under the stars.

Both from the Two Towers: Chapter 1, The Departure of Boromir.

So Frodo crossed above the falls and Boromir's funeral boat went over the falls.

[Harad]

Well thats odd. Didnt they use the portgage to get around the falls? Must be more than one falls...

[Gothmog]

The Sarn Gebir was a section of Rapids that was impassible by boat. Therefore they had to portage around them. Aragorn did say that they could Portage past the falls by the north stair. However, the Fellowship was attacked above the falls before they could use this way.

[Harad]

Thanks, Gothmog for setting me straight about the rapids AND the falls.

Now gentlemen and ladies, and proudfeet, the remaining questions are:

1. What evidence is there that the Fords of Isen were not passable for the Company?

Sept 24, 3018: Gandalf crosses the Isen
Dec 25 (chrismas?), 3018: the Company leaves Rivendell
Feb 25, 3019: the First Battle of the Fords of Isen.

Isnt the clear implication of this that the Fords were passable up until or about Feb 25, 3019?

2. How did Ugluk and his lads get across Rohan to Parth Galen?

Jan 15, 3019: the Fall of Gandalf
Feb 26, 3019: Breaking of the Fellowship; Eomer hears of the descent of the Orc-band from Emyn Muil.

Sometime between Jan 15 and Feb 26, Orcs brought the news of Gandalf's fall from Moria to Mordor, Sauron told Saruman about it and asked him to send an Orc-band to Parth Galen (this also is rather hard to believe), and Saruman dispatched Ugluk w/lads. Its possible to have happened, but speaks of a rather big lapse in Rohirrim security. Considering that Eomer picks up the Orc-band immediately upon them enterring Rohan from the South, how were they missed coming from the North, probably days before?

[lilhobo]

so sauron sends his nine riders from mordor to the shire, and then tells his orcs, "hey take a holiday, lemme pets take on the lil'uns"

in addition, wormtongue had theoden so twisted around his little finger, that eomer was also thrown in jail for chasing after the orcs...

think again :D

[Snaga]

Regarding the crossing of the Anduin, I never said that it would be impossible for large numbers to cross, just difficult. I don't think Sam and Frodo crossed below the falls- I don't remember any mention of the portage, and at least the canoe or Boromir was set in above the falls. Uruks could probably not cross below the falls, nor above the point where the Silverlode flowed into the Anduin- too many elves. So, Sauron being the kind to give orders might have told Saruman to send troops. Otherwise, how do we explain the fact that the company was spotted by orcs and Nazgul on the 23rd, yet had no trouble on the west banks until the 26th?
We know that orcs have raided the horses of Rohan to take black horses for the Nazgul to gallop around on. Grishnakh has about 40 with him (in the group that attack the Fellowship at PG). But these quotes are my source for Sauron sending troops to Moria:
First this from 'The Bridge of Khazad-dum':
For an instant the wizard looked out. Arrows whined and whistled down the corridor as he sprang back. "There are orcs, very many of them" he said. "And some are large and evil: black Uruks of Mordor."
Then this from Haldir in 'Lothlorien':
We have been keeping watch on the rivers ever since we saw a great troop of Orcs going north towards Moria, along the skirts of the mountains, many days ago.

Communication afterwards is more difficult to discern, but we know that orcs from Moria were in the band that captured M&P.

I think it is unlikely though that Saruman could have got his Uruk Hai from Isengard to Parth Galen in three days (ie from the attack from the East Bank). He must have already got them moving before that. They knew the Fellowship were in Lorien and had assembled troops in preparation for their next move south.

[Harad]

Saruman had, at the limits of special relativity causality, between:

Jan 15, 3019: the Fall of Gandalf
Feb 26, 3019: Breaking of the Fellowship; Eomer hears of the descent of the Orc-band from Emyn Muil.

to send Ugluk to Parth Galen.

How long would it take for Sauron to hear of the Fall of Gandalf via Orc Express? It took 10 days for the Fellowship to get from Lorien to Parth Galen. Would the Orcs be canoeing down the Anduin? That picture just doesnt seem right. Just a WAG, but at least 3 weeks to Orc-hand-and-foot-carry a message from Moria to Morrdorr.

How long would it take Uruk-hai to get from Isengard to Parth Galen? The "Death March" in the other direction took 4 days. These Uruks would be really something to Death March from Isengard to Parth Galen, fight a battle, then Death March back without a break. But why not? Still it leaves a gap of only ~two weeks for this all to take place.

Then considering, that you have pointed out the Mordor Uruks were indeed raiding Rohan (as well as populating Moria), why oh why would Sauron ask Saruman to send Ugluk and his lads on a perilous trip across Rohan, when Sauron's own troops were closer and certainly of less dubious loyalty (the best one can say about Orcs)?

[Rian]

I think there are two reasons that the Uruk-Hai where there when the fellowship had to finally decide whether to go to Mordor or to Minas Tirith.

1.) The "alliance" between Mordor and Isengard. The area would be a great place for the enemy to cross back and forth.

2.) Saurman probably figured out that if the fellowship were to seek safety in Lorien, they would take to the river.

[Harad]

Rian,

What you say is true.

Above, we conclude that the only way Saruman would know about Moria and Lorien is if Sauron told him. And the only reason, IMO a dubious reason, for Sauron to tell him, is to ask Saruman to send Ugluk across Rohan to Parth Galen. I suppose its possible that Ugluk was "hanging out" at Parth Galen with orders to pick up halflings, but that would have the remarkable Saruman and his gazillion-Uruk force covering every direction on Middle Earth at the same time.

Ah well, its just a story.

[Snaga]

Is the premise here that Saruman doesn't rumble that the 9W are heading through Moria. We know he is watching for parties heading south from Rivendell (i.e. the Crebain). The Wargs are probably Sauron's doing, but Gandalf incinerates them in fairly obvious Gandalf style. I think its fair enough that he has a fix on them from this. If he then loses them, he can probably guess they're not coming south to the Gap fairly quickly. (Also I think Sauron has to work this out too because he has to pack a load of Uruks into Moria with only a few days to get them there). I think you're right that Sauron is unlikely ask Saruman to help the search once they've left Lorien. I think this is his own decision, based on some informed guessing.

(Also remember Sauron's first words to Pippin when he thinks its Saruman contacting him via the Palantir. 'Why have you taken so long to report?' I wonder how long Saruman had maintained radio silence?)
How long would it take for Sauron to hear of the Fall of Gandalf via Orc Express? It took 10 days for the Fellowship to get from Lorien to Parth Galen. Would the Orcs be canoeing down the Anduin? That picture just doesnt seem right. Just a WAG, but at least 3 weeks to Orc-hand-and-foot-carry a message from Moria to Morrdorr.
Perhaps that's a little long. There's a Nazgul on the East Bank somewhere (just N of Emyn Muil I think), and another at Dol Guldur.

[aragil]

All we need is something to make sense.

Regarding the defense of the Gap: Saruman need not actually guard the gap, Gandalf need only think that the gap is guarded in order for him to turn East at Moria. Gandalf himself crossed the Fords, but he did so before Saruman knew that the Ring had left the Shire. Once the ring leaves the Shire this becomes a different game (especially if you are known to be in a group containing Hobbits, the likely bearers of the ring). In going to Orthanc, Gandalf encountered guards before being imprisoned. If the guards were orcish, then he probably would not have proceeded to his own capture. So they were probably Dunlanders, and Gandalf being the savvy Wizard he was probably would have recognized them as such. Much later in Holland, Legolas ID's the birds as crebain of Dunland (not bad for an Elf who seems to have spent most of his life in Mirkwood). Gandalf is probably quick enough to say to himself:
'Self, birds don't fly North in January, these birds are from the same country as the servants of Saruman, and they are looking for something. Saruman wants the ring we are carrying, so the birds could be looking for us. I do not know for certain if they saw us this time, and if I continued southwards then I would be giving them many additional chances to spot us. If the birds did spot us, could they track us and lead Wolf-Riders of Saruman to us?'
These all seem like likely possibilities, so Gandalf probably entertained the notion that the Gap was effectively held against him. In fact, scouts of Rohan at least had access to the Fords, prior to the battle, but Rohan did not necessarily hold it in strength until Theodred marched against Saruman, which was in late February. This would have been too late to help the Fellowship had they turned south, but this point is moot because Gandalf had no access to this information when he made his decision. The quest's greatest hope of success was in secrecy, not in hoping that allies would assist in breaking through by force of arms. Gandalf had questions about both the Gap and Moria, but figured that Moria provided less obvious danger with greater chance of secrecy.

Regarding East/West banks of the Anduin, and whos orcs had the easiest access:
Fact 1: The troops of Sauron that were tailing the ring did not cross to the west bank until the 25th/26th. We know this because the Fellowship was sleeping on the west bank every night, and did not encounter any trouble until the breaking of the fellowship. If crossing the Anduin was easy, then the orcs would have crossed the moment they found the fellowship (the 23rd). This would have allowed them to take the fellowship during the portage of the rapids, which would have been the best time to attack.
Fact 2: When we finally do see Mordorr orcs on the West banks, they are accompanied by Saruman's orcs. Perhaps they needed West-side (the best-side) assistance to make an easy crossing? Pure speculation, true, but the fact is that when the Easterners got across, the Westerners were there with them.
Fact 3: Uruks made the crossing of the Anduin, as reported by Haldir and confirmed by Gandalf in Morrria. Believe me, I'm aware of this one. It's integral in my argument in the Uruks vs. Uruk-hai thread. Furthermore, this force is large enough for Haldir to consider it a 'great troop'.
Fact 4: Other Mordor orcs had crossed the Anduin in order to raid Rohan for Black horses. I believe that Eomer explains this to Aragorn when the latter asks for an explanation concerning the rumor of Gwaihir: that Rohan is selling horses to Morrrrdorrrr.
Fact 5: The forces of Lothlorien were hunting orcs on the West bank. We don't know how far south, but at least in the vicinity of Lorien it would be bad to be orcish on the West bank.
Speculation 1: Ugluk's force was not the first force of Saruman's to cross Rohan. Grima's orders to leave such troops alone implies (does not necessarily prove) that these troops had been seen before.
Speculation 2: Crossing the Anduin between the falls and the Silverlode took time and planning. This speculation is the only reason I have for the fellowship not being attacked on the West bank immediately after they are attacked from the East bank on the 23rd. Given time the orcs could cross a 'great troop' as that seen by the elves, but the orcs of the 23rd were not able to cross over until the events surrounding the breaking of the fellowship.
Speculation 3: Most Orcs from Mordor who had previously crossed the Anduin were either annhilated by the Elves of Lorien, or else had perished in Moria.
Speculation 4: Sauron was as close to trusting Saruman as he ever would be. Saruman had not overtly shown that he had designs on the ring except to Gandalf, and Gandalf had probably not passed the word on to Sauron. Having said this, I think that Sauron could have asked for help from Saruman in manning the West Banks. He could have asked for help prior to the 23rd, or the Uruk-hai could have made an even quicker 'Death-March' than their return trip. It seemed to me that in the chapter 'The Uruk-hai' Saruman's troops are forced to go slower by the sun-sluggardly Northerners, but that once the Rohirrim are spotted Ugluk does not want to split up the troop.

I think (hope) that my four speculations help to explain the 5 facts, without violating any of them. Mordor orcs certainly could cross the Anduin, but needed time to do this (and possible assistance from the West bank to bring large numbers across). A large number of Mordor orcs had done this recently, but most of them had subsequently become casualties of the elves, hence the fact that there were no orcs on the West bank to trouble the fellowship from the Silverlode to the Falls. Sauron still trusted Saruman (it was not until after Helm's deep and the destruction of Isengard that Sauron finally sent a Nazgul to Orthanc to find out what Saruman was up to), and therefore could have asked for his aid in the ring capture. He did not necessarily need to tell Saruman why he needed the orcs, he could have just said 'I need support troops on the West bank of the Anduin, they'll get further orders when they get there.' Saruman was equally capable of discovering why Sauron wanted troops on the West Bank of the Anduin. He knew that the Fellowship had been travelling South through Hollin, and that his crebain had not seen them any further south than Moria. Maybe he was even as clever as portrayed in the movie, and secretly questioned whether Gandalf had the cajones to go into Moria. In any case this line of reasoning is completely in line with the fact that the orcs on the west-side of the river were a mixed group, and why they had not yet decided to go to Isengard (hence the necessity for infighting at the foot of the Emyn Muil).

ps. Regarding the last point by V of K, not all of the Wargs were incinerated by Gandalf & co, some retreated, and there were more the following night pursuing the Fellowship right up to the gates of Moria, thus removing much of the guess-work for Sauron.

[Harad]

VofK and Aragil,
Thanks for your thoughts.
I do not contradict anything you say and agree with the plausibility of the speculations.

One thing I wonder is when the Winged Nazgul appear?--the earliest reference I see is when Legolas Stinger Arrow gets one just before Feb 26.

That you are able to speculate and find points to support the events in LOTR reinforces the idea that its a pretty Goshdurn Good Story, even if it is has leetle inconsistencies.

Nevertheless I feel that everybody is unduly prejudiced by the choice that JRRT made for story reasons, and that the preponderance of real-life reasons, while not a slam-dunk would have suggested another path.

Only by upgrading the risks of the Gap and by downgrading the risks of Moria does the decision get made in favor of Moria.

Lets assume I am wrong. Is it 99 to 1 reasons in favor of Moria, is it 60-40, 51-49. What would it have to be before it turned out that not one other person would agree with me? Even in "12 Angry Men" it was only 11-1. (on the third hand, maybe only a small but elite number of us are reading these posts)

Finally, as far as Ugluk and his lads racing thru Rohan in less than four days whilst Eomer is on the lookout--they are my new heroes.

[Snaga]

Harad: You have a point. We're all desperately loyal to Gandalf aren't we!

You ask:One thing I wonder is when the Winged Nazgul appear?--the earliest reference I see is when Legolas Stinger Arrow gets one just before Feb 26.

That's the earliest definite sighting. I wonder about this passage from 'The Ring Goes South':It was the cold chill hour before the first stir of dawn. Frodo looked up at the sky. Then he saw or felt a shadow pass over the high stars, as if for a moment they faded and then flashed out again. He shivered.
'Did you see anything pass over?' he whispered to Gandalf, who was just ahead.
'No, but I felt it, whatever it was' he said. 'It may be nothing, only a wisp of cloud.'
'Then it was moving fast then' muttered Aragorn, 'and not with the wind.'

Could be a Nazgul - or not.

Aragil - fine post. Can't fault you! One point to add is that most of the Moorrrria orcs head south between Lorien and the mountains. A curious fact isn't it that they go on to cross the Wold southwards and end up in the Emyn Muil, meeting up with two other groups of orcs (Ugluks and Grishnakhs). This is a journey far further than that of the Uruk Hai. They do this in 6 weeks or so, and in those 6 weeks they have no contact at all with the Fellowship. How did they know where to go? They must get some orders from somewhere...:confused:

[Harad]

'Then it was moving fast then' muttered Aragorn, 'and not with the wind.'

Thats got "Nazgul" written all over it. If they were out and about that early, then that solves most of Sauron's non-Palantir communications problems.

Wait...didnt a Wing-ed Nazgul visit Saruman? That must have been around the same time as "The Ring Goes South."

[aragil]

Originally posted by Harad
One thing I wonder is when the Winged Nazgul appear?--the earliest reference I see is when Legolas Stinger Arrow gets one just before Feb 26.

Hmmm. I theorized that Balrogs might have surface to air whips in an older thread. Perhaps Morgoth and the Bowmakers of Lorien were both being outfitted by the US Government?

Originally posted by Harad
Lets assume I am wrong. Is it 99 to 1 reasons in favor of Moria, is it 60-40, 51-49. What would it have to be before it turned out that not one other person would agree with me? Even in "12 Angry Men" it was only 11-1. (on the third hand, maybe only a small but elite number of us are reading these posts).

I'd say 55-45, same odds I give Aragorn at Rauros. Difficult situation, slight conflict later regarding whether or not the right choice was made (much second guessing by members of this board using hindsight).

[Harad]

If its really 55-45, why isnt there ONE other person on my side? Just a random flip of the coin, a slight change in atmospheric conditions, a nearly indetectable displacement in a gene on a certain chromosome, and somebody would agree with me.

This is a testament to my incredibly poor powers of rhetoric. If I wasnt so sure of myself, what ever would I do?

[Elanor2]

I remember that the Nazgul were not supposed to cross the river to the west until Sauron let them. This was something that Grishnack (the Mordor orc that went with the Uruk-kai) said. It is confirmed by Gandalf when, after the battle at Orthanc, he perceives a Nazgul above and shouts that "...the Nazgul have crossed the river".

So, I am not fully sure if the shadow over Hollin was a Nazgul.

However, according to Grishnack the Nazgul were on the east side and could have carried a message from Moria to Barad-dhur very quickly, if the orcs of Moria managed to get a messager accross the river (perhaps north of Lorien???). That will explain how Sauron knew that the ring was (or could well be) in Lorien.

Perhaps the experts can check their maps and tell if this theory is possible.

Regards. Elanor2

[ReadWryt]

What an awesomely cool thread! Woo Hoo!! :eek:

[DGoeij]

I'm not having the books by my side at the moment, but the warg attack wouldn't be the only one would it? Its after this attack that the fellowship hurries towards Moria.
Saruman surely got word form the warg-attack and the wargs could keep harrasing the fellowship night after night on their way south. Meanwhile Saruman would probably send his forces north. I don't think even Gandalf and Aragorn could guide the fellowship so that the wargs would loose track.

And the fellowship was then reported by the wargs to have gone into Moria. I've no idea how long a message to Orthanc takes, but I guess Saruman would use his Palantir on this one, checking his wargs from time to time.
Then they came out of Moria again (not that easily, but they did) and an orcish war-party followed them into Lothlorien. Some message of this would be sent to Sauron also, considering the fact that uruks form Mordor where present.
Also I think it would be rather obvious to Saruman that, after Moria, the fellowship would go to Lothlorien. He knew Galadriel from the White Council.
I must admit though, that time and distances do not work in favor of Sauron and Saruman on this one.

[Elanor2]

Hi DGoeij,

The wargs are a good point. Saruman might have learnt from them that the fellowship was entering Moria. And remember that Gandalf had to reveal himself in Red Horn when he lighted the fire to prevent them from freezing. A small thing, but enough for Saruman to pinpoint him, and perhaps follow him with the palantir, as Gandalf feared. It was probably then when Gandalf decided that they could not continue south on the open and that they had to enter the mines, at whatever cost.

Gandalf, of course, did not know that Saruman had a palantir at the time. He was probably thinking that they had more time to decide, but was proven wrong and they entered Moria just in time to avoid other attacks. Considering how many tools had Saruman at his disposal (palantir, animal and human spies, Sauron's instructions and moves and his own craft), it is not surprising that they had so many problems.

If Saruman used the palantir to follow Gandalf and organize the warg attack, he might have seen how they entered Moria and how the gates were blocked. From there, there was only one option, the Lorien gates. He might have seen them entering Lorien and seen that the Hobbits had survived. To deduce that the hobbits were the ones carrying the ring is not difficult if you know how many members the fellowship had (and he might have known it since Red Horn), for why should they be bringing hobbits in such a trip if they were not important for some reason?

So, organizing a force to intercept them south of Lorien was well within time, given that he might have known a lot already about the fellowship wereabouts. However, the fact that his Uruk-kai were together with Mordor orcs suggest that Sauron knew as well where they were and forced Saruman to work together with him. Somehow, Saruman had to have been obeying instructions from Sauron or he might have instructed his Uruk-kai to get rid of the Mordor orcs and make the attack on they own. But it was too early to make such a move. I do not think that Saruman was so confident that he could confront Sauron without the ring. Only when they had a hobbit on their hands did the Uruk-kai follow Saruman's personal instructions, not before.

That's what I think happened.

Regards. Elanor2

[Harad]

Dont have time for more, but were Palantir's spy scopes? Werent they COMMUNICATION devices. That doesnt work unless there is a Palantir at the other end.

[DGoeij]

I'm going on memory now, but Denethor had a Palantir and wasn't communicating with anyone, as far as I can recall.
He was looking around, seeing the movement of the enemy forces drawing towards Gondor. In his conversation with Gandalf he mentioned he had found out several things which surprised Gandalf. What I'm sure of was that Gandalf later on mentioned that Denethor must have looked around too much, so Sauron was able to control most of what he saw.
I'll dig in the books at home, find some quotes, but I'm sure the Palantirs where more than a cell-phone.;)

oh, and Elanor2, I think you mean Uruk-hai, instead of Uruk-kai, no big deal but it didn't look like a typo since you used the term consistent.

[Elanor2]

Hi Harad,

I think that the palantir were not only communication devices, but "seeing stones" and could also see things independent from other palantirs.

Aragorn, for example, took the palantir of Orthanc and, after battling with Sauron at the other end, released the connection and used it to learn that the Umbar Corsairs were on the march in South Gondor. That made him change his plans and take the Paths of the Dead.

Denethor also used the palantir to learn about Sauron's army moves, but being weaker than Aragorn, could not shake Sauron completely and Sauron manipulated his visions into showing him how strong the forces against Gondor were, making him dispair and causing his fall.

Saruman used the palantir before to learn many things, until he made connection with Sauron's palantir and was enslaved. Sauron keep both palantir connected, but it does not mean that Saruman could not use it to see at distance, when Sauron allowed it.

Regards. Elanor2

[Elanor2]

Uruk-hai, right. Thanks DGoeij

[Snaga]

I think what's going on with the orcs is quite confusing. In particular the role of Grishnakh. If you look at G, L and A discussing the S-runes etc on the dead orcs bodies at Parth Galen there is no mention of any with the device of the Eye. If you read 'The Uruk-Hai' chapter in TTT, it seems that initially Grishnakh is the only Morrrrdorrr Uruk around. He seems to have a load of Moorrria orcs with him, and the rest are Isengarders under Ugluk. He says he has come across from the East Bank, where a Nazgul awaits (to the north, he says, incidentally). He describes himself as their 'trusted messenger'. He suggests going east, and appears to already consider Saruman a traitor. He seems to be on his own - there is no evidence in the text that there are more of Sauron's orcs on the west side. "I came across" says Grishnakh - not we. He fails to pursuade the orcs to go east, and sneaks off. A little later he returns with 40 of his own kind. Later on of course when Ugluk is busy elsewhere he tries to search the Hobbits.

To me this shows that by this stage Saruman and Sauron had stopped working together. This will have coincided with the time that Saruman stopped using his Palantir. This suggests to me that Sauron did not ask for Saruman's help on the west bank. Far from it, Sauron realises that treachery is afoot and sends the small force he has nearby to try and retrieve the situation.

How does that sound??

[Elanor2]

I think that Sauron did not think too much of Saruman. His reaction to Pippin looking at the palantir is quite significative. It just says "tell Saruman it is not for him". It seems to imply that, even if Saruman thought himself very clever, Sauron knew quite well what was going on on his head!

But Sauron does not bother to question Pippin and he only sends one single Nazgul to find out what Saruman was doing and to pick up Pippin. That shows comtempt for Saruman, not fear. Clearly Sauron thought that whatever Saruman was up to, he could handle it easily.

Yet, when Aragorn reveals himself, Sauron gets really worried and launches his attack to Gondor a bit too early. So, he really feared that someone could use the ring against him. Not Saruman, though (and he was a wizard and a Maia). Obviously Sauron knew Saruman's strengths and weaknesses (specially the later) well enough not to fear him.

I can well imagine that Sauron will not mind Saruman getting the ring, since he knew he could get it from him easier than from other contenders. And that he would prefer having the ring in Isengard that roaming around in the hands of Aragorn. So, asking Saruman for help is not so far fetched, if we assume that Sauron knew how to control Saruman.

my2c. Elanor2

[JeffF.]

complex than that. Unfinished Tales points out that if Saruman had the ring the Nazgul would "bow and call him lord." At the time of the Pippin/Pilantir incident he must have surmised that Saruman may have a hobbit but he doesn't have the ring. Also, Saruman is a known entity to Sauron. Aragorn, as heir to Isildur, is a complete surprise to Sauron. From Sauron's point of view it would be logical for Aragorn to reveal himself only if he were about to use the power of the Ring against the Dark Lord and militarily challenge him. Therefroe he concludes that he must strike before the ringbearer can learn to use the power of the ring effectively (several passages in LOTR indicating that the ringbearer would take some time to use the full potential of the ring).

[Elanor2]

Hi JeffF,

That's interesting. The loss of the Nazgul might have been a hard one for Sauron. However, I had not the feeling that Saruman really could confront Sauron successfully, ring or not ring, or that he could so easily have gained control of the ring before Sauron was upon him.

Sauron seems to me little concerned with Saruman, and Saruman seems to me quite overconfident and not so clever as he thought himself (failed with the Ents, and did not get a quick victory and the Deep despite nummerical superiority). Even when he tries to charm Theoden from his tower he fails miserably.

I am not very impressed by Saruman, although he caused trouble enough. And I do not think that Sauron was more impressed than I am. Of course, that's my opinion.

Regards. Elanor2

[Harad]

Getting back to the Palantir's use as a 'scope...something I still find doubtful...I believe these uses were anchored to there being another Palantir nearby...

What's to stop these Palantir spies from working in Moria?

[JeffF.]

...has a chapter (the last) that explains the capabilities and limitations of the pilantiri. According to that chapter hey would not work in Moria because they need a source of light (they could not look into any mountain or any place lacking light). While some stones are in accord with each other it seems to only make viewing between the two easier than with stones that are not in accord. The stones could be wielded by someone of great will to look in any direction. The viewer would simply have to stand or sit in appropriate orientation to the stone (i.e. stand/sit west of the stone to look east etc). The only stone they could not commune with was the one in the Tower Hillls sited to look only to the downfallen West and Eressa.

[DGoeij]

I promised a quote on the palantirs, I found this one:

The Two Towers, chapter The Palantir, when Pippin is riding with Gandalf on Shadowfax towards Mina Tirith:
(typing errors on my account)

'What did the Men of old use them for?' asked Pippin, delighted and astonished at getting answers to so many questions, and wondering how long it would last.
'To see far off, and to converse in thought with one another,' said Gandalf. 'In that way they long guarded and united the realm of Gondor. They set up Stones at Minas Anor, and at Minas Ithil, and at Orthanc in the ring of Isengard. The chief and master of these others were far away in the North. In the house of Elrond it is told that they were at Annuminas, and Amon Sul, and Elendil's Stone was on the Tower Hills that looks towards Mithlond in the Gulf of Lune where the grey ships lie.
'Each Palantir replied to each, but all those in Gondor were ever open to the view of Osgiliath. Now it appears that, as the rock of Orthanc withstood the storms of time, so there the palantir of that tower was remained. But alone it could do nothing but see small images of things far off and days remote. Very useful, no doubt, that was to Saruman; yet it seems that he was not content. Further and further abroad he gazed, until he cast his gaze upon Barad-dur. Then he was caught.'

(end quote)

I guess that's clear enough.

[graen]

I saw the relationship between Sauron and Saruman a little bit differently than what I've understood posted so far (and a bit more complicated).

I figured Saruman was using his smooth-talking to play up to Sauron and act much more subservient than he actually was, playing for time while he obtained the ring and could overwhelm Sauron.

Sauron was at the same time playing Saruman, giving him enough room to hang himself, while hoping that his actions would turn to his benefit, also playing for time while he regained the ring and could handle Saruman with his full strength. Sauron without the ring was not yet powerful enough to take care of Gondor the elves and dwarfs, Saruman, and some unknown claimer of the ring. Any hasty attack on one of them, would leave him vulnerable to the others.

That would explain the small party of Mordor orcs that assisted in the capture of Merry and Pippen (I seem to recall more than 1 in that group). Sauron was aware that Saruman was searching for the ring, but not trusting him to do the correct thing when he found it, so he took some steps to attempt to control the situation. As for only sending a small party over, it is fairly easy for 9 people who already have boats to cross a wide river. However a war-party of scores of orcs who don't have any boats readily available would find it much more difficult to cross a wide river, especially if they wanted to take armor and weapons across.

[Snaga]

Originally posted by graen
I saw the relationship between Sauron and Saruman a little bit differently than what I've understood posted so far (and a bit more complicated).

I figured Saruman was using his smooth-talking to play up to Sauron and act much more subservient than he actually was, playing for time while he obtained the ring and could overwhelm Sauron.

I'd agree with that. I think that Saruman felt that with the ring he would be able to 'acquire' most of Sauron's forces. The 9are tied to the ring, and they command most of Sauron's forces it seems.

Sauron was at the same time playing Saruman, giving him enough room to hang himself, while hoping that his actions would turn to his benefit, also playing for time while he regained the ring and could handle Saruman with his full strength. Sauron without the ring was not yet powerful enough to take care of Gondor the elves and dwarfs, Saruman, and some unknown claimer of the ring. Any hasty attack on one of them, would leave him vulnerable to the others.

That would explain the small party of Mordor orcs that assisted in the capture of Merry and Pippen (I seem to recall more than 1 in that group). Sauron was aware that Saruman was searching for the ring, but not trusting him to do the correct thing when he found it, so he took some steps to attempt to control the situation.

It is hard to know the level of distrust that Sauron would have of Saruman. Or rather, assuming that they distrusted each other, it is hard to guage how aware Sauron was of his independent desire for the ring and active attempts to get it. But Grishnakh's words show that by that time Saruman had been rumbled. He clearly calls him a traitor. Sauron could not repay Saruman for his lack of loyalty at that point, he had Gondor and Rohan in the way! And while Saruman was fighting Rohan, it served his purposes well enough. Taking hobbits, and potentially rings to Isengard is another matter though!

I also thought initially that Grishnakh has more mordor orcs with him, but if you read the chapter 'Uruk-Hai' closely that's not apparent. When he fails to pursuade the orcs to go to Lugburz, he disappears off, while Ugluk kills a few Moria orcs who want to go home. He later returns with about 40 Mordor orcs, 'to see that Orders are carried out'. Its a strange series of events that is not fully explained (the orcs don't give full explanation to Pippin who observes most this!)

As for only sending a small party over, it is fairly easy for 9 people who already have boats to cross a wide river. However a war-party of scores of orcs who don't have any boats readily available would find it much more difficult to cross a wide river, especially if they wanted to take armor and weapons across.

This is probably why there are not more Mordor orcs and why Grishnakh does not fight Ugluk to get the Hobbits. The 40 or so orcs he returns with later either came across later than Grishnakh, or possibly they are remnant of the Mordor orcs who were stationed in Moria. I like the latter theory, since otherwise where did they all go? It doesn't seem likely that Lorien killed all of them, if the Moria orcs got through. The other things that back up this theory is that firstly if Mordor could get 40 orcs across why the delay. Indeed why not send more? Finally it explains why Grishnakh had to kill some of them (he describes them as fools) before they come with him. If they'd just been sent across by the Winged Nazgul, they'd do what they were told!!

[Harad]

Two things...gasp...wheeze...

1. The quote with regards to the Palantir seems to support the idea that one needs a Palantir on both ends of the link, even if you divert the one on the far end to see out.

2. The crossing of the River by Mordor orcs is both hard--to support the Parth Galen party--and easy--to populate and communicate with Moria. Is there any better timeline for the WIng-ed Nazgul? So far I have heard:

1. something goes overhead in the "ring goes south"
2.legolas shoots one down, along the river
3. someorc in minas morghul (?) says that the nazgul were being held on the east side until...

how do the above fit in with the time period between the fall of gandalf and parth galen?

[DGoeij]

from the same quote:

But alone it could do nothing but see small images of things far off and days remote.
(end)

So it wasn't very powerfull alone, but it was still able, as a single stone, to show the small images of things far off.

[Anfauglith]

Saruman was to stupid sometimes to realize what hooom people :D could do to himself, or to his troops.Did he really forgot about fangorn??, YES. Anyway, not lucky, just a bit intelligent(he was suposed to be, a Maiar you know).

[Snaga]

Its Grishnakh who says that the Winged Nazgul won't show themselves to the west of Anduin until later. I don't know whether that excludes high-level recon. I think the Hollin incident can only be a 'maybe' not a 'probable' or 'definite'.

I think the river crossing is hard to do in numbers at short notice.

Why do I get the impression nothing but a detail exposition of dates and positions will suffice?? Maybe I'll do this, but I haven't got time at the moment.

Anfauglith, I don't think Saruman had overlooked the Ents. But they hadn't engaged in open warfare in 3 long ages of Middle Earth. His miscalculation was I think understandable. Also I think that if anyone else but a pair of hobbits had arrived in Fangorn they wouldn't have triggered the same reaction. Don't know - I can't really justify that statement but it feels right to me!

[Ged]

I've just come new to this thread, so apologies if I repeat what has been said before or affirm anything that has already been ridiculed.

It just seems to me a little simpler than has been described here. Saruman was under Sauron's domination, but was trying to keep part of his thoughts hidden, in the hope of getting the ring himself at a future point. Whether or not Sauron sensed this is not clear.

From when the Nazgul were caught in the Rivendell flood, Sauron is presumably, for a while, in the dark. Certainly when the Fellowship head south Saruman (presumably) knows enough to send his birds to seek for them. (Remember Radagast.)

Now, assuming Saruman knows their rough location, what would he do? He would be desperate that they do not cross the Misty Mountains. On the east side he has less control, and he would not know whether or not Sauron had sent the Nazgul or Orcs across the Anduin. So, he closes the pass of Caradhras to them with his Weather Withy. (Another thread discusses whether this is Saruman or Sauron's doing, but I believe it was Saruman's.)

Sauron keeps his Nazgul east of the river Anduin until well into TTT. (Or at least he seems to. Tolkien only reports what his main characters actually know themselves.) This would imply to me that he is not at all sure where the Fellowship are.

So unless Saruman had Orcs to hand at the time to send north very quickly to intercept the Fellowship (and he may have done, it just isn't reported) he has done what he can: close the Pass of Caradhras and try to force the Company south towards the Gap of Rohan (or into his approaching bands of Orcs, possibly).

He cannot control whether or not the Company attempt the dangerous route through Moria.

[Harad]

Finally found it-- V of K, was right that is was Grishnakh speaking with Ugluk, those lively fellows (and arent the Uruks the most entertaining of the characters--more so than those boy scouts in the Fellowship--its too bad that PJ seems to make them pure evil without as much nuance...):

Ugluk: "...What's happened to your precious Nazgul? Has he had another mount shot out from under him?..."

Grishnakh: "'Nazgul, Nazgul'...You speak of what is deep beyond the reach of your muddy dreams, Ugluk...You ought to know that they're the apple of the Great Eye. But the winged Nazgul: not yet, not yet. He won't let them cross the Great River yet, not too soon. They're for the War--and other purposes."

Now you could argue "What did Grishnakh know, anyway?" On the third hand Grishnakh was Sauron's (?) direct emissary in the halfling capture party, so perhaps he was a Senior Orc and might know some general policy.

Didnt Legolas shoot the Nazgul when it was still on the east side of the river? So if Grishnakh is correct, as of about March 2--when Grishnakh spoke--the Nazgul had not crossed the River.

This of course negates all the supposition that Sauron and hence Saruman got intelligence via the Nazgul before this date regarding Moria or other activities of the Fellowship.

If you don't believe Grishnakh, then what other evidence is there besides the "Ring Goes South" overhead incident which appears to be even more ambiguous? Could that "wisp" have been the spirits of the Nazgul returning to Mordor, or Sauron himself on recon?

Oct 20: Nazgul unhorsed at the Ford
January 8 (or about): wisp overhead
Feb 23 (or about): Legolas shoots winged steed

Ged makes the interesting point that is in Saruman's interest to keep the Fellowship out of Moria and herd them further south, so if he really was on top of things he would send his forces to the entrance of Moria and dissuade them from entering. Sauron on the other hand, wants them to go thru Moria, since his creatures and confederate--the Balrog--have been "[peopling] Moria" for nearly 600 years.

[Snaga]

Harad

Why do you think the Balrog was Sauron's confederate? I always thought of him as an independent sort of guy.

Grishnakh does seem to be a senior orc. He calls himself Lugburz's trusted messenger. He seems to have an inside track on policy. He is aware of Gollum - perhaps he was in the torture party?? He maybe even knows he is looking for the ring when he searches M&P.

I think he is the link between the Nazgul on the East Bank, and events on the west bank. i.e. he is there to keep Sauron informed and try to influence things. But it seems a weak play from Sauron. The ring is at stake, and he gets 40 orcs across to help Grishnakh, but by this time Ugluk and co are well on their way to Isengard.

[Harad]

V of K,

By "confederate" I mean a loose ally, with many of the same goals: e.g. "Evil Uber Alles." Sauron had peopled Moria with his creatures since c. 2480 and the Balrog was the top dog there. I think there was some association between the Orcs of Moria and the Balrog, wasnt there? These Orcs would be a "bridge" between Sauron and the Balrog in terms of informal, crude communication, at least. Also both the Balrog and Sauron went way back and were both Maia. (I read somewhere that they pledged in the same fraternity.)

Parth Galen IS a weak play by Sauron, and I have been trying to get it explained for about 100 other posts. Why did Saruman dominate the raiding party at Parth Galen when Sauron both had the knowledge and was closer in terms of projecting power--remember Saruman troops had to cross the whole of hostile Rohan, whereas Sauron's troop had only to cross the Anduin. Various unsatisfactory explanations have been: Sauron's troop could not cross the River, or Sauron wanted Saruman's troops to dominate there, or Saruman was so brainy that he sent those troops there without Sauron telling him to, etc.

(BTW sorry about that Khand Ham crack..that referred to Frobisher of Khand, a pompous sort...)

[Snaga]

I didn't even see it:cool:

[Harad]

Jan 15: Gandalf falls at Khazad-dhum.
February 16: Farewell to Lorien
February 23: The boats attacked near Sarn Gebir (this is where Legolas shoots the winged Nazgul)
February 26: Saruman's Uruks take Merrry & Pippin at Parth Galen.

How lucky was Saruman that Ugluk and his lads just happened to be at Parth Galen the same day that the Fellowship was--and about 40 days after they left Moria?

The only thing that makes sense is that Sauron was getting constant updates to their progress out of Lorien, informing Saruman by Palantir, and that Saruman then sent Ugluk to arrive at Parth Galen shortly before the Fellowship got there. If they recreated the Death March in the other direction from Parth Galen (nearly) to Isengard, this would take 4 days. Thus, Sauron told Saruman about the parties progress at around Feb 22, perhaps because the Nazgul were shadowing them from the far side of the Anduin. Saruman would JUST have enuf time to get his troops in place.

This, of course, begs the question, as to WHY? Sauron needed Saruman to make those heroic efforts to occupy Parth Galen, when all Saruon had to do was cross Anduin at Parth Galen with his own forces. If Saruman Orcs could get to Parth Galen from the West, how much easier would it be for Sauron's Orcs to get there from across the Anduin? Much easier and lots more sensible if the Ring was the prize.

[Grond]

Originally posted by Harad
If its really 55-45, why isnt there ONE other person on my side? Just a random flip of the coin, a slight change in atmospheric conditions, a nearly indetectable displacement in a gene on a certain chromosome, and somebody would agree with me.

This is a testament to my incredibly poor powers of rhetoric. If I wasnt so sure of myself, what ever would I do? Harad, I just can't stand the thought of you standing alone on this one. I, Grond, agree that it would have been more logical and have had a greater liklihood for success had the Fellowshop attempted the Gap of Rohan. I have been swayed from my original position by Harad's keen debating skills and his presentation of evidence that negates the wisdom of taking the Moria path.;)

[aragil]

First off, Saruman's Uruks??? Uruks!!??

Secondly, Wolves in the Silmarillion (esp. Werewolves) are perfectly capable of communication and quick movement, so the Wargs on the West side of the mountains could have provided Sauron with info. Secondly, what exactly does a Big Red Eye do all day? Does he take time out for tea with the Nazgul. Does he spend time writing letters to his estranged fraternity brother in Moria (class of FA 1)? Does he need to eat? Sleep? Blink? Something tells me that the BRE spends most of it's time at the boob-tube (palantir). This would allow Sauron pretty good intelligence, even if it is only intermittently giving him small pictures of things far away. This would combine with all of his other sources of info (Narcs amonst the various Orcs, wandering Warg patrols, Nazgul, co-opted spies of Saruman (the Nazgul put the fear of the BRE into the squint-eyed southerner of Bree). Considering that a large party of Orcs was spotted moving up to Moria, and later that Uruks of Mordor were spotted in Moria, we can assume Sauron had reliable information on the Fellowship's whereabouts. Maybe the Nazgul were flying in the SR-71 fellbeast above Hollin, and Grishnakh had been instructed to disavow all knowledge of such flights in the event of pilot capture. The point is that we don't need to know how he got this information, as it is relatively clear that he had the info.

Finally, Harad forgets the Orc performance in the death march. Aragorn, Legolas and Gimli spent four days from Emyn Muil to Fangorn. The Orcs only spent 3, and that was with the runts of Moria and the Hobbits slowing them down. The Uruk-hai of Isengard were tremendous physical specimens (excepting when they had to fight), and I don't doubt that they could have done the Death March in both directions, and they could have done it faster without Moria Orcs and Hobbits slowing them up. In fact, I'm going to go look for my local U-h recruiter and sign up right now. I want to be all I can be.

[Tar-Elenion]

A couple of points and/or queries:

1). It seems to be suggested that the Orcs Haldir mentioned as "...going north towards Moria, along the skirts of the mountains..." were Sauron's Orcs coming from Mordor.

2). It seems to have been suggested that the Orcs that Grishnakh brought back with him when he returned to Ugluk's troop were possibly remenants of the 'black Uruks of Mordor' that were in Moria.

3). There also seems to have been some suggestion that the Northerners from Moria were under orders from Grishnakh/Mordor.

Are these above inferences I am making from reading this thread accurate?

Edited in:
Please note: these are my inferences of what has been said on this thread, they are not necessarily the conclusion I have drawn from the texts.

[Snaga]

Originally posted by Tar-Elenion
A couple of points and/or queries:

1). It seems to be suggested that the Orcs Haldir mentioned as "...going north towards Moria, along the skirts of the mountains..." were Sauron's Orcs coming from Mordor.

2). It seems to have been suggested that the Orcs that Grishnakh brought back with him when he returned to Ugluk's troop were possibly remenants of the 'black Uruks of Mordor' that were in Moria.

3). There also seems to have been some suggestion that the Northerners from Moria were under orders from Grishnakh/Mordor.

Are these above inferences I am making from reading this thread accurate?

I agree with 1) and 2) as reasonable inferences. 3) I think Grishnakh wanted to control them, but he lost the debate because Ugluk had his boys to dish out some Isengard-style discipline, and he didn't. Grishnakh hadn't led them from Moria, be came across the river.

All of that is in the category of 'theory that fits the facts' rather than a certainty. I haven't seen an account that makes more sense to me than this.

[Harad]

I went where no sane person would dare when I said "Uruks" so it was certainly not an intentional foray into the uber-scholarly "U vs U-H" thread--And dont you agree that those accumulated posts should be edited and published in book form to daunt any other JRRT afficianado.

I would grant Aragil that Ugluk (my personal hero) and his lads could run from Isengard to Parth Galen in TWO DAYS, kill Boromir, turn immediately around and run back almost to Isengard in four days. Why the heck not?

Nevertheless it doenst change anything, in essence, about Saruman's time schedule for getting Ugluk to Parth Galen, and Sauron's orders (?) to do so.

I also agree that Sauron had many spies, as well as time on his multi-fingered hands (I count 9 man+4 dwarf rings minus 1 that Isildur cut off), but I still need more convincing that the Palantir was all that useful as a spyscope, without another Palantir nearby as a "terminal." Remember the Palantir predate Sauron, so its not as if he had the owners manual.

As far as Mordor Orcs on the West bank, I believe there should have been plenty, both remnants from Moria and ones to slip across the Anduin directly from the nearby Black Gate, not in force, but in sufficient numbers, ~100, to cause a nuisance.

[Grond]

Harad, please go to your local bookstore and buy a copy of the Unfinished Tales. It has a whole chapter devoted to the Palantari. Once you read that chapter, all your questions will be answered. :)

[Tar-Elenion]

Please note: Of my above post- these are my inferences of what has been said on this thread, they are not necessarily the conclusion I have drawn from the texts.

[Tar-Elenion]

Originally posted by Harad
I also agree that Sauron had many spies, as well as time on his multi-fingered hands (I count 9 man+4 dwarf rings minus 1 that Isildur cut off), but I still need more convincing that the Palantir was all that useful as a spyscope, without another Palantir nearby as a "terminal." Remember the Palantir predate Sauron, so its not as if he had the owners manual.


"A veiwer could by his direct will cause the vision of the Stone to concentrate on some point on or near its direct line... by the controlled will of a skilled and strong surveyor, remoter things could be enlarged, brought as it were nearer and clearer... a man at a considerable distance might be seen as a tiny figure... but concentration could enlarge and clarify the vision... Great concentration might enlarge some detail...so that it could be seen (for instance) if he had a ring on his hand."

Excerpted from UT.

Essentially (if in greatly simplified terms) a Palantir could be used as a sort of telescope. How well it could be used depended on the user and the conditions of the object to be surveyed.

I would suggest following Grond's recommendation and purchase UT, in which many questions about the Palantiri (et.al.) are answered. there is a mass market edition out for $6.99.

[Greenwood]

I am still working my way through this thread but in the meantime, one question and one point.

Question -- Why is it necessary for Ugluk and his Uruk-hai to have just arrived at Parth Galen before they waylay the Fellowship? If Saruman has heard about the Fellowship entering Moria is not the Anduin a logical route south? Rather than trying to find them on the river why not just station Ugluk and his boys at Parth Galen above the falls, an obvious stopping place for anyone traveling down the river?

It hasn't really been relevant to the parts of the thread I have read so far, but early on in the thread there was some math done concerning the number of days between Feb 26 and March 3. It was stated that there were five days in that interval unless it was a leap year. Actually there are seven days in the interval. In Middle Earth February had 30 days.

Back to reading.

[Harad]

February in Middle Earth. You are a wonder, Greenwood. Maybe solar time matched sidereal time in ME so there was no need of a leap day. Otherwise the seasons would get out of joint from Age to Age.

But wait:
Every year began on the first day of the week, Saturday, and ended on the last day of the week. Friday. The Mid-year's Day, and in Leap-years the Overlithe, had no week-day name. The Lithe before Mid-year's Day was called 1 Lithe, and the one after was called 2 Lithe. The Yule at the end of the year was 1 Yule. and that at the beginning was 2 Yule. The Overlithe was a day of special holiday, but it did not occur in any of the years important to the history of the Great Ring. It occurred in 1420, the year of the famous harvest and wonderful summer, and the merry-making in that year is said to have been the greatest in memory or record.

THE CALENDARS

The Calendar in the Shire differed in several features from ours. The year no doubt was of the same length, for long ago as those times are now reckoned in years and lives of men, they were not very remote according to the memory of the Earth.


Yes Saruman could have stationed a pack of Orcs there from Jan 16 until Feb 26. I can just picture Ugluk relaxing, smelling the roses, around Amon Hen. Maybe he threw a GroundHog day party? And then of course, Feb 14, a beautiful bouquet of wildflowers for that special Orc in his life.

And sorry guys, but I already have an original edition of UT. I will certainly reread the Palantiri section, but nothing I have seen quoted fills the bill as a powerful enuf instrument for Sauron at Barad-dur or Saruman at Orthanc to pinpoint and track the location of 9 persons over 100,000s square leagues between Rivendell and Moria.

[Grond]

A quick reread may be the correct advice, especially before making brash, all-inclusive statements that will be proven incorrect later.:)

[aragil]

Greenwood- I can't remember exactly why Ugluk is supposed to arrive at the same time as the Fellowship. I think it might have had to do with whether or not Sauron asked him for help in patrolling the West bank of the Anduin. If Ugluk was responding to orders from Sauron, then he would have had to have just arrived. If he was being sent separately from any collaboration, then perhaps he booked a tent for Valentines day and just decided to stay on until March. Kind of like a Middle-earth Niagara. But really I've forgotten the relevance to the thread. What with Legolas employing the Patriot Nazgul Defence System, and the Nazgul themselves flying the ol' SR 71, this thread tends to confuse.

As far as months- I'm certain you are right. I remember that Tolkien described all 12 months having 30 days, with the extra 5 days being extra-month entities such as Yule and Mid-year's day. I always thought it made more sense then our Calendar, which seems bent on short-changing poor February.

Originally posted by DGoeij
'Each Palantir replied to each, but all those in Gondor were ever open to the view of Osgiliath. Now it appears that, as the rock of Orthanc withstood the storms of time, so there the palantir of that tower was remained. But alone it could do nothing but see small images of things far off and days remote. Very useful, no doubt, that was to Saruman;
I don't know Harad, if this and Tar-Elenion's quote don't convince you, then what exactly are you looking for?

[Tar-Elenion]

The following points are what I have inferred has been suggested on the thread (and it does not seem to be disputed that my inference is incorrect) and I have some comments/queries.

1). It seems to be suggested that the Orcs Haldir mentioned as "...going north towards Moria, along the skirts of the mountains..." were Sauron's Orcs coming from Mordor.

Do these Orcs necessarily have to be from Mordor?
If they were from Mordor and were sent to Moria it would it not be safer to journey to Dol Guldur (or simply come from Dol Guldur) and then cross the Anduin north of Lorien and travel _south_ to Moria?


2). It seems to have been suggested that the Orcs that Grishnakh brought back with him when he returned to Ugluk's troop were possibly remenants of the 'black Uruks of Mordor' that were in Moria.

Grishnakh's men have shields emblazoned with Sauron's symbol. The 'black Uruks' in Moria seem to have been recognized as Mordorian by their physical appearance (their accoutrements are not described). The 'great chieftain' that spears Frodo however is briefly described and there is no mention of a Sauronic symbol on his huge hide shield. Something else that may be relevant is that while Sauron began peole Moria with his creatures in ca. TA 2480 (see App. B), in UT, 'Hunt for the Ring' it is noted that Gollum, when he took refuge in Moria after escaping Thranduil's Elves: "was in great peril of discovery by the servants of Sauron that lurked in Moria..." with the associated endnote "These were in fact not very numerous, it would seem; but sufficient to keep any intruders out, if not better armed or prepared than Balin's company, and not in great numbers." This could tie in with Gandalf's statement that "There are Orcs, very many of them... And some are large and evil: black Uruks of Mordor." (LotR, 'Bridge of Khazad-dum').


3). There also seems to have been some suggestion that the Northerners from Moria were under orders from Grishnakh/Mordor.

When Ugluk and Grishnakh say they are both under orders (from Isengard and Mordor respectively) to bring the prisoners back unsearched, alive, unspoiled etc. (one to Isengard the other to Lugburz), one of the Notherners responds that those were "Not our orders... We have come all the way from the Mines to kill, and avenge our folk. I wish to kill, and then go back north." (LotR, 'Uruk-hai').

[TulKas Astaldo]

My opinion... Legolas should have snuck ahead without being spotted, came to Rohan, warned Theoden about the Orcs in the Gap of Rohan, and then return to sneak the rest of the Company through while the Riders of Rohan go around playing Orc Round-up

[lilhobo]

Originally posted by TulKas Astaldo
My opinion... Legolas should have snuck ahead without being spotted, came to Rohan, warned Theoden about the Orcs in the Gap of Rohan, and then return to sneak the rest of the Company through while the Riders of Rohan go around playing Orc Round-up

well you would be wrong, legolas would have had his elven tail thrown in jail with eomer

also sauron's orcs were nortunal, they wouldnt have ventured outside in the "big yellow face" if the rohirrhim werent chasing them

even that show that it was impossible to find hideouts in rohan, and without the elven robes, Aragorn, legolas and gimli would have been spotted in the rolling fields

as for the palantari, that deserves a thread of its own

[Harad]

I have re-read the UT chapter on the Palantiri and believe there is a lot less there than meets the eye. They were NOT NOT NOT synoptic viewing devices that would enable a devoted (crazed perhaps) user to monitor several hundred thousand square leagues of ground and follow a moving party. PERHAPS they could be used to focus on a particular spot, e.g. the door of Moria, to wait until someone showed up there. There is no evidence that they were used this way. If your ideas are to fill all the "gaps" in Saruman's and Sauron's knowledge with: "Well..they just used the Palatiri," then you'll have to find another buyer of that used theory.

Further, along the line of mis-information sometimes quoted is that the Palantiri could not see into Moria:

The vision of the palantiri was not "blinded" or "occluded" by physical obstacles, but only by darkness; so they could look through a mountain as they could through a patch of dark or shadow, but see nothing within that did not receive some light.

CLEARLY the Fellowhip used sources of light (Gandalf's wand or torches) to find their way thru Moria, and thus COULD be seen. A chamber in Moria was lit by sunlight. The method of focusing the palantiri on a particular geographical spot would be MUCH more useful in Moria than in the wide open country outside Moria.

Finally, my first-printing copy of UT has a beautiful large-scale color map which enables me to make an accurate measure of the Gap of Rohan in miles. Not counting the foothill regions, i.e. just the clear unobstructed lowlands, the Gap is 42 miles wide. Saruman no doubt sent the redoubtable Ugluk to patrol the Gap on his own, running back and forth 42 miles every 1/2 hour or so.

[Snaga]

Originally posted by Tar-Elenion
The following points are what I have inferred has been suggested on the thread (and it does not seem to be disputed that my inference is incorrect) and I have some comments/queries.

1). It seems to be suggested that the Orcs Haldir mentioned as "...going north towards Moria, along the skirts of the mountains..." were Sauron's Orcs coming from Mordor.

Do these Orcs necessarily have to be from Mordor?
If they were from Mordor and were sent to Moria it would it not be safer to journey to Dol Guldur (or simply come from Dol Guldur) and then cross the Anduin north of Lorien and travel _south_ to Moria?


2). It seems to have been suggested that the Orcs that Grishnakh brought back with him when he returned to Ugluk's troop were possibly remenants of the 'black Uruks of Mordor' that were in Moria.

Ugluk's men have shields emblazoned with Sauron's symbol. The 'black Uruks' in Moria seem to have been recognized as Mordorian by their physical appearance (their accoutrements are not described). The 'great chieftain' that spears Frodo however is briefly described and there is no mention of a Sauronic symbol on his huge hide shield. Something else that may be relevant is that while Sauron began peole Moria with his creatures in ca. TA 2480 (see App. B), in UT, 'Hunt for the Ring' it is noted that Gollum, when he took refuge in Moria after escaping Thranduil's Elves: "was in great peril of discovery by the servants of Sauron that lurked in Moria..." with the associated endnote "These were in fact not very numerous, it would seem; but sufficient to keep any intruders out, if not better armed or prepared than Balin's company, and not in great numbers." This could tie in with Gandalf's statement that "There are Orcs, very many of them... And some are large and evil: black Uruks of Mordor." (LotR, 'Bridge of Khazad-dum').


3). There also seems to have been some suggestion that the Northerners from Moria were under orders from Grishnakh/Mordor.

When Ugluk and Grishnakh say they are both under orders (from Isengard and Mordor respectively) to bring the prisoners back unsearched, alive, unspoiled etc. (one to Isengard the other to Lugburz), one of the Notherners responds that those were "Not our orders... We have come all the way from the Mines to kill, and avenge our folk. I wish to kill, and then go back north." (LotR, 'Uruk-hai').

Tar-E, I think all of this is sensible stuff except one point which may be a typo - Ugluk's orc's insignia is the White Hand of Saruman. I am in the middle of a careful re-reading of Book 2 and 3 of LotR, with the aim of revising my previous opinions. Until I complete that I won't comment further.

[Ged]

One thing comes through to me reading this and other threads. It is a somewhat unpalatable notion in a way, and goes against better judgement. It is this: Sauron knew a lot less about the movements of the Fellowship than did Saruman during the crucial period covering the end of FoTR and the start of TTT.

I say it goes against better judgement, because Sauron is clearly far more powerful and omnipotent than Saruman. But I think it is a view which can be supported:

1) If Sauron knew the location of the fellowship after Lothlorien why did he not send the Nazgul to waylay them? He would have done this for several reasons: to attempt to take the ring; to kill the members of the Company (particularly Aragorn) before they got to MT; to at least slow their approach to MT to allow more time for his forces to get ready. (Harad: with respect, I do not agree with your argument that Sauron couldn't have sent the Nazgul because they may not have been ready following the flood at Rivendell. Remember, there was at least one Nazgul east of the river during this period, so they were "back in circulation". If I have misunderstood you on this I apologise. :))

2) If Sauron really knew of Saruman's plans to snatch the ring at Parth Galen would he not have attempted to do something about it? Having the ring in the hands of a hobbit is one thing, letting Saruman get hold of it is another. I don't believe for a minute Sauron "trusted" Saruman enough to assume he would give it back. He would do anything to stop Saruman getting it. For instance, as has been said, he could have sent many hundreds (if not thousands) of orcs (let's say Uruks!) across the Anduin in plenty of time to waylay the party if he had used the Palantir to observe the Fellowship either in or leaving Moria (they spent 2 months in Lothlorien after all). It might be argued that this wasn't necessary because Saruman's URUK-Hai were doing the dirty work for him, but if this was the case they would have given up the ring to the Mordor Orcs who would have quickly hot-footed it eastwards to Mordor (not west across the dangerous fields of Rohan).

3) Use of the Palantir. It has been suggested that Sauron could have known of what was going on through the use of the seeing stone. There is evidence against this. When Aragorn looks into the Palantir and shows Sauron the re-forged blade, he says afterwards that he did it to attempt to get Sauron to act sooner rather than later: i.e. before he is really ready. Both Gandalf and Aragorn recognise this to be a risky strategy. It is strongly implied in the book that seeing Aragorn is a surprise to Sauron, and that Aragorn's strategy actually succeeds. But if Sauron had been using the Palantir to observe the movements of the Company surely he would have known of Aragorn, not least through the sword he carried (which Sauron might just be expected to recognise!)

4) The clear implication on Amon Hen when Frodo puts on the ring, is that Sauron's eye becomes aware of him when he gazes to Barad-Dur, searches for him, and with Gandalf's help Frodo just manages to take the ring off in time. Sauron's gaze then passess off northwards. Ditto above. If all Sauron had to do was look in the Palantir and direct it to his will, surely he would have been following them ever since they a) left Rivendell, or b) left Moria gates, or c) set off down the Anduin after Lorien.

5) As to how Saruman knew things that Sauron didn't? Well, there is at least the instruction of Radagast to all creatures (particularly birds) to send news to Isengard. Also, Saruman is closer to the action (though the suggestion that he was in Fangorn at the same time as Aragorn et al I've always had some difficulty with.)

Thus, accepting this view clears up a few questions IMHO. Principal amongst them, why was Sauron so under-represented at Parth-Galen? Why did he appear to let the ring fall so nearly into Saruman's clutches? Why did he not send Orcs and/or Nazgul across the water sooner.

Final point: Saruman actually came VERY CLOSE to achieving his objectives. If events at Rauros had gone ever so slightly differently, the ring could well have ended up inside Orthanc. If that HAD happened the whole story of what happened next could have been completely different.

If I have appeared to make these points in other threads it is not because I am being stubborn. I just feel they have not been fully refuted. Okay, I'm being stubborn! :)

[Harad]

What is the point of responding to your arguments when you dont acknowledge the response? I'll just refer you to the other responses, esp. that the Nazgul are a non-argument since they never crossed the River for any purpose between Rivendell and March 2.

[Ged]

Thanks Harad.

Your statement that the Nazgul COULD NOT have crossed the river because they DIDN'T is one that I simply cannot understand. The FACT that they didn't is the basis of my argument.

I have tried to be polite and constructive in my dealings on this site. I'm not sure what is supposed to be so wrong with my attempted contributions, but am beginning to wonder if it is all worth the trouble. Feel free to ignore my last post and continue your discussions without me.

Edit added later: "throwing his toys out of the pram and walking off".

[Harad]

Ged:
You wont find someone more glad to argue a point than me, but it takes two (sides) to argue.

Your statement that the Nazgul COULD NOT have crossed the river because they DIDN'T is one that I simply cannot understand

Let me try to explain.

You base you argument that Saruon did not know where the Fellowship were in large part because he did not send the Nazgul after them. Logically this only makes sense if:

1. Sauron had the ability to send the Nazgul after them.

2. Sauron had the will to send the Nazgul after them.

As far as number 1 goes, the Nazgul were unhorsed in Rivendell. It is stated in LOTR that they will not return to the field of action until they recover and get new mounts. Subsequently we learn that the new mounts are winged. What indication is there that the new mounts were ready anytime before Legolas shoots one down, after leaving Lorien? There is only one incident in the book when the "Ring Goes South": something uncomfortable flits overhead. This contradicts the very reliable Grishnakh's words that the winged Nazgul are being withheld for the War. I dont believe that this was winged Nazgul. The preponderance of evidence is that the winged Nazgul were not prepared to venture forth until after Lorien.

As far as 2 is concerned, there is no evidence that the Sauron intends to use the winged Nazgul except to launch his War. The only insight we are given into Sauron's plans are by Orcs such as Grishnakh and Shagrat, and they both agree that the Nazgul were withheld pending the beginning of large scale hostilities.

The Nazgul failed utterly in the Shire and on to Rivendell. Your conclusion that since the Nazgul were not hurried back into the hunt, that Sauron didnt know anything about the Fellowship's whereabouts is not justified.

The history of this thread is that I started questioning whether Saruman knew anything and was convinced that he learned things thru Sauron. You started from the exact opposite position, that Sauron knew nothing. Nothing wrong with that. But IMO you need more supporting evidence, not just the argument about the Nazgul.

HOWEVER, I am willing to agree that neither Sauron not Saruman knew very much about the Fellowship until after Moria. This would argue that: 1) the Caradhras incident was due to the spirit of the Mountain as is suggested in the Book, and 2) that only after an Orc-express from Moria did Sauron learn of Gandalf's fall.

At that point Sauron would tell Saruman where to send Ugluk. I still cant explain WHY he did this.

On many of your other points I agree:

I believe that Parth Galen is at best a unaccountable mistake on Sauron's part, or more probably a logical inconsistency in the story.

I agree completely with you about the Palantir.

However, I believe as with Elanor2 explanation way above that is was Sauron who held most of the intelligence cards after Rivendell. Radagast probably became a non-player shortly after meeting Gandalf, and Saruman notoriously ignorned Flora and Fauna. Lastly if Saruman was in the know and not Sauron, why did the Fellowship end up taking a route more beneficial to Sauron? If Saruman had the knowledge, he certainly botched up what he did with it.

[Grond]

Quote originally posted by Ged
One thing comes through to me reading this and other threads. It is a somewhat unpalatable notion in a way, and goes against better judgement. It is this: Sauron knew a lot less about the movements of the Fellowship than did Saruman during the crucial period covering the end of FoTR and the start of TTT.

I say it goes against better judgement, because Sauron is clearly far more powerful and omnipotent than Saruman. But I think it is a view which can be supported:

quote
If Sauron knew the location of the fellowship after Lothlorien why did he not send the Nazgul to waylay them? He would have done this for several reasons: to attempt to take the ring; to kill the members of the Company (particularly Aragorn) before they got to MT; to at least slow their approach to MT to allow more time for his forces to get ready. (Harad: with respect, I do not agree with your argument that Sauron couldn't have sent the Nazgul because they may not have been ready following the flood at Rivendell. Remember, there was at least one Nazgul east of the river during this period, so they were "back in circulation". If I have misunderstood you on this I apologise. :))

I disagree that at least one Nazgul was East of the River. I also doubt that Sauron had any idea who Aragorn was before he revealed himself to Sauron in the Palantir. I do believe Sauron would have recognised Boromir, so your argument has validity there. A reason he wouldn't send the Nazgul is that he may have believed Gandalf was still with the company. Gandalf had already fought off all 9 of the Black Riders at Weathertop, so it is apparent he would have mastery over one or two. Lastly, on this topic, I think what you say has merit in that, as many have said here, I doubt Sauron had specific enough information to "focus in" on the Fellowship with the palantir. Saruman more likely had better intelligence and was able to track them better.

quote
2) If Sauron really knew of Saruman's plans to snatch the ring at Parth Galen would he not have attempted to do something about it? Having the ring in the hands of a hobbit is one thing, letting Saruman get hold of it is another. I don't believe for a minute Sauron "trusted" Saruman enough to assume he would give it back. He would do anything to stop Saruman getting it. For instance, as has been said, he could have sent many hundreds (if not thousands) of orcs (let's say Uruks!) across the Anduin in plenty of time to waylay the party if he had used the Palantir to observe the Fellowship either in or leaving Moria (they spent 2 months in Lothlorien after all). It might be argued that this wasn't necessary because Saruman's URUK-Hai were doing the dirty work for him, but if this was the case they would have given up the ring to the Mordor Orcs who would have quickly hot-footed it eastwards to Mordor (not west across the dangerous fields of Rohan).

I just disagree. My feelings are that Saruman (with his abilities of persuasion) had convinced Sauron that he was his servant. That is illustrated when Pippin looks in the Orthanc Stone and Sauron gloats at him and says, "Tell Saruman that I will send someone for you. This treat is not for him." Something like that. Don't underestimate Saruman's silver tongue.

quote
3) Use of the Palantir. It has been suggested that Sauron could have known of what was going on through the use of the seeing stone. There is evidence against this. When Aragorn looks into the Palantir and shows Sauron the re-forged blade, he says afterwards that he did it to attempt to get Sauron to act sooner rather than later: i.e. before he is really ready. Both Gandalf and Aragorn recognise this to be a risky strategy. It is strongly implied in the book that seeing Aragorn is a surprise to Sauron, and that Aragorn's strategy actually succeeds. But if Sauron had been using the Palantir to observe the movements of the Company surely he would have known of Aragorn, not least through the sword he carried (which Sauron might just be expected to recognise!)

I'm not sure that seeing Aragorn is a surprise. Seeing Aragorn revealed is another manner. I don't have my books with me but I clearly remember Aragorn stating to Gimli and Legolas that he appeared to Sauron in "other guise" than he appeared to them. That would indicate that he showed himself to be the rightful King of Gondor and Arnor. How he did that is a mystery but that's what he said.

quote
4) The clear implication on Amon Hen when Frodo puts on the ring, is that Sauron's eye becomes aware of him when he gazes to Barad-Dur, searches for him, and with Gandalf's help Frodo just manages to take the ring off in time. Sauron's gaze then passess off northwards. Ditto above. If all Sauron had to do was look in the Palantir and direct it to his will, surely he would have been following them ever since they a) left Rivendell, or b) left Moria gates, or c) set off down the Anduin after Lorien.

Again, I'm not sure that the Searching Eye of Sauron described here is not Sauron using the Palantir. There is no evidence either way. His gaze was distracted for whatever reason. Sounds like his using the Palantir to me but I could be wrong.

quote
5) As to how Saruman knew things that Sauron didn't? Well, there is at least the instruction of Radagast to all creatures (particularly birds) to send news to Isengard. Also, Saruman is closer to the action (though the suggestion that he was in Fangorn at the same time as Aragorn et al I've always had some difficulty with.)

On this one, I agree whole-heartedly with you.

quote
Thus, accepting this view clears up a few questions IMHO. Principal amongst them, why was Sauron so under-represented at Parth-Galen? Why did he appear to let the ring fall so nearly into Saruman's clutches? Why did he not send Orcs and/or Nazgul across the water sooner.

My conclusion would be that Sauron was under represented because he had given the task to his trusty Lt of Orthanc to handle and even Sauron was fooled by Saruman. Here again, that's my opinion and I could be wrong.:)

quote
Final point: Saruman actually came VERY CLOSE to achieving his objectives. If events at Rauros had gone ever so slightly differently, the ring could well have ended up inside Orthanc. If that HAD happened the whole story of what happened next could have been completely different.

Absolutely!

[[i]quote]
If I have appeared to make these points in other threads it is not because I am being stubborn. I just feel they have not been fully refuted. Okay, I'm being stubborn! :)

I like stubborn!!:)

[Grond]

I like Harad's explanation as to why the Nazgul hadn't yet appeared.

******Just a footnote to my post above.

[Ged]

Added before I have had the chance to read the last couple of posts:

Harad,

Thanks for the response above. I really do apologise if it appears that I have jumped into the middle of a thread. I have read the thread fully and felt that my views (I agree perhaps starting from an opposite point from you) were of interest.

Continuing then in a spirit of friendly argument, I'll try to address all your responses.

Firstly, I'm not assuming that Sauron knew nothing. Of course not. I'm trying to find a level of knowledge of Sauron that best fits the facts as I see them.

I agree that it is not made clear whether or not the winged Nazgul had the capability of crossing the Anduin before March 2. It is to some extent speculation. The "something" that flits overhead in the "ring goes south" I agree is ambiguous. It is true, though, that the time between the flood at Rivendell and the Company reaching Rauros is considerable. I don't have the books to hand so can't say exactly - several months. Being "spirit" creatures I suppose I have made the assumption that they would flee back to Mordor reasonably quickly, and that once there Sauron would soon re-horse (or should that be re-wing) them. But okay, let's agree to differ.

This doesn't address my further point that Sauron could have used Uruks. From the company leaving Moria to leaving Lorien (I think) is about 2 months. If Sauron knew where the company were mightn't he not have sent his (expendable) orcs to Rauros (or anywhere else on the Anduin) to waylay them?

"Sauron had the will to send the Nazgul after them"

Well, throughout the book the Nazgul are really portrayed as Sauron's prime weapons. I don't know whether they are as powerful as, say, the Balrog, the important thing is that they obey him utterly. They were not very successful in the Shire I agree (though let's face it if they