"There in the black shadows, beyond the sight even of Manwe in his highest halls, Melkor with Ungoliant plotted his revenge. But when Ungoliant understood the purpose of Melkor, she was torn between lust and great fear; for she was loath to dare the perils of Aman and the power of the dreadful Lords, and she would not stir from her hiding."So, Melkor persuaded Ungoliant to help him. He had understood that alone he could not have defeated the united force of the other Valar. He needed her assistance."Therefore Melkor said to her: 'Do as I bid; and if thou hunger still when all is done, then I will give thee whatsoever thy lust may demand. Yea, with both hands.' Lightly he made this vow, as he ever did; and he laughed in his heart. Thus did the great thief set his lure for the lesser."
The question is:
“WHAT IF UNGOLIANT HAD REFUSED?”
Sub-questions:
1. Would he have dared to assault the very heart of Valinor ALONE?
The events that followed:
2/ Would Melkor had been able to take over Formenos and the Silmarills WITHOUT Ungoliant’s help? What if Ungoliant’s dark horror had not been there to scare the defendants of Formenos? Would they have chased Melkor away, in which case the Silmarils would have been saved….“But even as Nienna mourned, there came messengers from Formenos, and they were Noldor and bore new tidings of evil. For they told how a blind Darkness came northward, and in the midst walked some power for which there was no name, and the Darkness issued from it. But Melkor also was there, and he came to the house of Feanor, and there he slew Finwe King of the Noldor before his doors, and spilled the first blood in the Blessed Realm; for Finwe alone had not fled from the horror of the Dark. And they told that Melkor had broken the stronghold of Formenos, and taken all the Jewels of the Noldor that were hoarded in that place; and the Silmarils were gone.”
And then……? THEN what would have happened IF….?
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